TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Packers vs. Cardinals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Packersof Packers, Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,693,914
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,720,463

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,693,914 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 571 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Cardinals27c791,267$211,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,269.9117041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed88…f3c4backed Cardinals25c194,345$48,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,586.318344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Packers74c174,306$128,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,723.9733553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Cardinals25c167,262$41,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,790.547035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Packers62c163,275$101,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,837.9747738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Packers73c126,850$92,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,790.8544652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Packers74c117,000$86,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,62024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Packers74c116,176$85,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,579.6212352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Cardinals48c97,902$46,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,64830043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Packers74c81,500$60,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,19024957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Cardinals45c80,848$36,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,106.7441947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Cardinals25c70,000$17,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,50010333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Cardinals29c65,502$19,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,057.5422950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Packers50c62,578$31,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,298.316248.4%30 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Packers55c60,000$33,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,949.9913654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Packers75c55,000$41,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,7501681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+147.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Packers55c53,264$29,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,179.481540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Packers68c47,534$32,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,158.8814351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Cardinals38c44,573$16,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,750.5620026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Packers75c43,457$32,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,864.7514951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Packers75c37,718$28,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,509.4531350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Cardinals26c36,325$9,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,444.4124456.6%138 W · 106 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Cardinals45c36,261$16,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,156.4341851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Packers74c33,799$25,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,749.8620755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Cardinals26c32,996$8,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,545.6153348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf166…b79abacked Packers74c30,805$22,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,999.9977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Packers75c30,000$22,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5006645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Packers75c30,000$22,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5003979.5%31 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Cardinals25c29,604$7,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,375.912144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Packers75c27,850$20,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,934.0625956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Packers76c20,685$15,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,964.44365.1%28 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Cardinals24c17,135$4,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,112.468343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Cardinals25c17,000$4,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,250.117440.5%30 W · 44 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Cardinals24c15,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.9916545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Cardinals30c14,684$4,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,472.122552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Packers57c13,160$7,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,650.231056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Packers75c12,347$9,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.2241248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Packers73c11,187$8,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,020.4928447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Packers75c11,111$8,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,777.7510442.3%44 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Packers75c11,000$8,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,75083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Packers65c10,769$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,769.233256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e85…bb56backed Packers73c10,063$7,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,717.011070%7 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+58.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Cardinals25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50030743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Packers74c10,000$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6008959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1fce…2229backed Cardinals45c10,000$4,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5501855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Cardinals51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.9913843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Packers61c8,553$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,303.3711252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Packers75c7,500$5,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,87514450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe212…d5f4backed Cardinals59c7,317$4,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,316.846850%34 W · 34 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Packers75c7,186$5,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,796.381,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Packers73c7,000$5,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8903056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Packers73c6,000$4,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6203956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+46.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Cardinals25c5,846$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.0931854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Packers75c5,334$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.4261148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x075f…833cbacked Packers73c5,125$3,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.661353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c0…69d0backed Packers68c5,059$3,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.825549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Cardinals50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50014248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Cardinals29c4,844$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.1860049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cardinals24c4,714$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.3651352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Packers75c4,402$3,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.3931848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb61…58ffbacked Cardinals36c4,156$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Packers73c4,100$2,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1075048%24 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Packers76c4,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96054451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3451…49a5backed Cardinals50c3,993$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8525…bdbabacked Packers47c3,884$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.525949.2%29 W · 30 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+7.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Cardinals50c3,695$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.57851.3%40 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81ea…668bbacked Packers54c3,672$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,690.01771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Packers75c3,600$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90011750.4%59 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Packers58c3,481$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.415527.3%15 W · 40 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-38.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Packers73c3,479$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.246550.8%33 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d6…aa44backed Cardinals27c3,331$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.373423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Packers71c3,196$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.9627348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…3292backed Cardinals32c3,154$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.91118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8e…6556backed Cardinals33c3,054$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.41250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Packers75c3,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75020646.1%95 W · 111 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0adb…7693backed Cardinals16c3,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4804131.7%13 W · 28 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+86.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x49d0…8503backed Packers50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8d…f2c7backed Cardinals33c2,995$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe176…9d7cbacked Cardinals52c2,857$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Packers75c2,856$2,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.951,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf1…c324backed Packers73c2,838$2,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.262152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Packers74c2,762$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.248550.6%43 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Packers56c2,728$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.422349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a5…fe70backed Packers76c2,643$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.19450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked Packers74c2,541$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.542548%12 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x474b…a13cbacked Packers53c2,520$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.82114.3%3 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-65%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Cardinals29c2,312$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.9268446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Packers75c2,109$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.339359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Cardinals24c2,100$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.9914035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75e0…fe50backed Packers68c2,025$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.0710960.6%66 W · 43 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67ac…a763backed Cardinals57c2,022$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Packers74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52011452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Packers75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5007050%35 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Packers75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50010434.6%36 W · 68 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Cardinals55c1,988$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.452552%13 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Packers76c1,974$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.6821454.7%117 W · 97 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Cardinals26c1,930$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.6818140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcce5…bdafbacked Cardinals48c1,891$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.151553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Packers75c1,750$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4402070%14 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x698f…ae41backed Packers70c1,638$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.342454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+82.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.