TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe176…9d7c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NHL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 53 out of 100; worst South American Leagues at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST90%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$35.46
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$41.7
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$14
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$52.9
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$57
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,382Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,381.82
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$239.29
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$115.34
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$213
All 9 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LAR vs. Cardinalsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$61.7
Steelers vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$13.48
Dolphins vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$166.8
Cowboys vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+61.3%+$84.78
Commanders vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+25%+$25
Packers vs. Cardinalsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,494Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,493.9
All 6 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UNCG Spartans vs. Delaware Fightin' Blue Hensbacked Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+43%+$35.2
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Boise State Broncosbacked Boise State Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$19.8
Towson Tigers vs. Rhode Island Ramsbacked Rhode Island Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$104.2
Indiana State Sycamores vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Indiana State Sycamores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$18.26
All 4 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will India win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$331.34
Will the match end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will South Africa win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$566Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+95.7%+$541.17
Will England win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$53.98
All 4 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$86.64
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$55
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$67.18
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-11-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+272.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Penguins vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+272.5%+$32.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Heerenveen vs. NAC Breda end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$17.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Oviedo vs. Mallorca end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+57.7%+$8.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+29.9%+$5.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pelicans vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+29.9%+$12.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$86.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 17, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netherlands vs. Lithuania end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$96.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.