TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-12-06?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,268
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$141,018

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,268 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked No14c14,482$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.942,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No23c12,769$2,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,954.023,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No16c11,145$1,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,826.8953645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes25c5,656$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,256.162853.6%15 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+35.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked No73c4,424$3,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,229.64850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed No51c3,999$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.772885.7%24 W · 4 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick71cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No75c3,271$2,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,450.678248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d80…cd30backed Yes78c3,219$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.973100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Yes74c2,522$1,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.455147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes22c2,036$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.6423046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked No24c1,362$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.027648.7%37 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes60c1,333$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.4675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed No73c1,250$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.52766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed No54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5402737%10 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes22c1,000$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78014756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed No74c800.22$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.4615453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…eab4backed Yes75c646.67$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked No42c613.64$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2609951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3b…3418backed Yes78c596.08$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes58c571.36$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.7244749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes50c554.14$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.4428241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No76c544.9$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.1956951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Yes24c515.22$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.572454.2%13 W · 11 L+5.4wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+73.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Yes28c461.13$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.7619544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf78e…0956backed Yes44c453.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.18560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Yes57c404.98$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.792556%14 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No76c400$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30410942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1007967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No55c392$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.6251136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76da…30a2backed Yes29c344.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.834949%24 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed No73c341.98$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.427447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74d7…6beabacked No4c299.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112015%3 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-66.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b3b…05cfbacked Yes50c285.52$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1433100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb711…fd1bbacked No73c273.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes49c263.15$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.9155058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf477…7a3ebacked Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718a…5d86backed Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick77cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…e89dbacked No57c231.09$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed Yes76c228.7$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.13455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x838b…5828backed No74c228.38$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed No58c210$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.81450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…8f36backed Yes78c204.06$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.062466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Yes27c200$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x154b…4917backed No74c186.67$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.132142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d16…4e1fbacked No55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick67cpaid-34.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa98d…3560backed No73c178.08$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-64.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7869…61d8backed No58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed No74c169.67$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2910040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Yes78c153.85$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.85955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed No36c151.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1713332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes22c150$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1179721.6%21 W · 76 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58e4…73f9backed No47c147.68$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.653467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd3a…9993backed No73c142.84$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.285865.5%38 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No52c142.15$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.282138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xece7…9822backed Yes73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No74c135.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004557.8%26 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe977…fcd8backed No75c135$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.251030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e8f…6b61backed No58c133.77$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.145532.7%18 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa23b…db15backed No49c133.33$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e0f…443abacked Yes78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71f6…d12fbacked Yes78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.215100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+68.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed Yes46c128.07$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5619458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed No13c125$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2544655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb327…0fccbacked Yes28c106.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.374136.6%15 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x795f…1871backed No24c104.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce7f…de96backed No75c102.36$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d17…069abacked Yes26c101$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.742100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+159.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x471b…d632backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739350.5%47 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1158…9973backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+120.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ee…47c8backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x125e…992cbacked No75c93.96$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.47771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes27c92.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.599542.1%40 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x189d…147cbacked No73c82.19$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608169.1%56 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e2…4459backed No57c78.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.612458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes75c75.85$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.963839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.434035%14 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked No29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed No29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe973…1c09backed Yes74c67.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8034…2463backed No77c64.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503574.3%26 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd371…4478backed No20c64.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+1,204.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31eb…ba4bbacked Yes80c63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-75%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80a9…ad8bbacked No55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-54.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed No75c58.89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0111563.5%73 W · 42 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95da…60b4backed Yes78c56.4$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c6…50d5backed Yes25c54.68$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+102.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76d7…5adcbacked No75c53.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc420…2badbacked No57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302755.6%15 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed No77c51.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf8a…c4e7backed Yes78c50.31$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No75c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2525855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…f37fbacked No74c47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.784252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed No28c41.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.74829.2%14 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-33.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked No24c41.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9d…a2eabacked No60c41.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ac…e166backed No74c40.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302867.9%19 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3977…b0b7backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadd2…350cbacked No75c37.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.181540%6 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-36.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Yes73c37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.143354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.