TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-12-06?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$372,703
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$388,564

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,703 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c16…09cbbacked Yes48c129,394$61,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,752.521566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No59c73,610$43,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,863.521,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed No52c45,000$23,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,60011445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Yes48c29,130$13,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,982.439455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No63c28,869$18,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,648.723,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No53c20,753$11,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,723.95052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes47c19,235$9,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,053.012853.6%15 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+35.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked No52c19,048$9,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,048.717062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked No68c12,385$8,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,919.867648.7%37 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked No51c11,361$5,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,566.84850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes4c10,614$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.592,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No65c10,154$6,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,553.1575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes53c9,925$5,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,274.1515134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked No52c9,891$5,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,785.42556%14 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No51c8,449$4,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,121.8778248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed Yes9c7,179$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Yes30c7,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1003357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bfe…ab8dbacked Yes52c4,530$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Yes48c4,156$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.151729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.9511644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No54c3,587$1,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.1733244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No67c3,392$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.2253645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Yes45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.992737%10 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No46c2,549$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.0323046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes50c2,206$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1002842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x347c…525abacked Yes50c2,201$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1023644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed No47c2,171$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.58520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Yes48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9605940.7%24 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed No52c1,904$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.496459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No52c1,902$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.0355058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No48c1,824$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.0744749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked No55c1,800$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8102254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b2…5f43backed Yes4c1,800$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.71947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes49c1,700$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.9910057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d11…c34dbacked Yes7c1,610$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.61376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.28per pick49cpaid+60.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No52c1,538$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.4614157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes53c1,500$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7954963.3%31 W · 18 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee04…9612backed Yes25c1,400$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-32.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No46c1,312$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.5314846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3944…6470backed Yes49c1,133$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.496041.7%25 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes53c1,103$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5902536%9 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9b1…815bbacked Yes18c1,046$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.971136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4605635.7%20 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5675…f99cbacked Yes46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4601414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-72.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6b59…6445backed Yes51c988$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.881681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2269…6304backed Yes49c965.65$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4755166.7%34 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes18c963.52$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.322544%11 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+51.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa645…0be6backed Yes30c930$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+80%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed No54c899.98$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.9916850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked No53c874.36$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.658764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf540…cc07backed Yes47c862.13$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9678…b4bfbacked Yes26c844.83$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2222832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes30c789.7$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.7751136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x891d…dd26backed No55c780$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3511747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed No48c773.95$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.461428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked No52c769$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.123158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes47c750.54$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35022747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes48c746$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.6234342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes24c664.58$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1606448.4%31 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No47c660.88$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.2656951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Yes48c626.99$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.961346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes16c614.55$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes13c600.39$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.222924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes31c600$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1864544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Yes50c571$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.3914254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes52c526$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.5210235.3%36 W · 66 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes48c515$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.812651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed No52c506.19$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.0419544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No71c502.81$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.5516542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8efe…7b44backed Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9493…7988backed Yes28c499.99$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1424443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d9…dc26backed Yes31c479.81$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.741040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Yes53c471.7$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-69.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes52c458$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.8333945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No49c448.72$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.179746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes47c440$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.82850%14 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ed…617ebacked Yes46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06eb…1a5fbacked Yes46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13f9…3ab4backed Yes38c426.12$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.213641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x455f…bd63backed Yes49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No48c400$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.910942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Yes48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1925044%22 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d16…4e1fbacked No76c392.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.81346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick67cpaid-34.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x203e…a9b5backed Yes46c355.5$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.531040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x024e…2e48backed Yes7c350$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Yes20c343.11$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705236.5%19 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed No47c335.96$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.5211040.9%45 W · 65 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Yes53c330.19$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1751315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-44.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Yes30c330$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992650%13 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78e5…7d6abacked Yes48c312.5$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No58c311.71$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.8628241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No52c303$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9424258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1418251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ff…4303backed Yes49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14740%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0bae…55b5backed Yes52c299.99$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Yes31c278$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.182828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-43%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x74b7…669bbacked Yes52c263.46$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda70…828bbacked Yes47c256.68$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.641643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee2…035dbacked Yes16c255.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412737%10 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.