Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88a516c623b27fa968c4696b3217145b169d03863e9277fb06efbfbdf3a722a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 10c | 8,612$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.81 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 7,324$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.31 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 74c | 4,625$3,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.76 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed No | 74c | 2,081$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.02 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 21c | 844.73$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.46 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 74c | 703.96$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.39 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 26c | 633$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.52 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 25c | 490$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7502…beafbacked No | 77c | 447.39$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…663cbacked Yes | 22c | 410$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 9c | 351.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…b12bbacked No | 74c | 344.59$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 23c | 333$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 26c | 306.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Yes | 16c | 300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes | 9c | 219.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 27c | 164.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 16c | 144.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…cc69backed Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 73c | 139.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d4…770ebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 28c | 71.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4659…98bebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed No | 77c | 33.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 77c | 25.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 78c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cb…4ec1backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-12-06?No won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-12-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.