Tennis · resolved market
Guangzhou Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x924fce5d5c64783a928833b5abb981f8b6e06afc0f1424c8067230ddb0a74129
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- McNallyof McNally, Tomljanovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tomljanovic | 29c | 8,394$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,447.52 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed McNally | 65c | 6,658$4,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,351.62 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Tomljanovic | 33c | 4,562$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.75 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tomljanovic | 23c | 3,269$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.18 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…0dd6backed Tomljanovic | 27c | 2,102$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…38adbacked Tomljanovic | 13c | 1,614$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Tomljanovic | 16c | 1,516$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.49 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed McNally | 70c | 1,400$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.75 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed McNally | 79c | 1,263$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…80f7backed McNally | 44c | 1,059$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed McNally | 79c | 1,012$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.39 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Tomljanovic | 51c | 929.16$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.92 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Tomljanovic | 29c | 914.93$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.65 | 288 | 33.3%96 W · 192 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tomljanovic | 37c | 606.99$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.65 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed McNally | 74c | 590.81$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.17 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Tomljanovic | 29c | 581.01$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.31 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…6be1backed McNally | 60c | 544.63$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…ab80backed McNally | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e957backed McNally | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d37…59b5backed Tomljanovic | 56c | 363.75$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.7 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tomljanovic | 43c | 340.53$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.43 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Tomljanovic | 15c | 330.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked McNally | 65c | 300$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Tomljanovic | 9c | 282$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed McNally | 56c | 255.67$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tomljanovic | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Tomljanovic | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…7a60backed Tomljanovic | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tomljanovic | 43c | 177.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…d54bbacked McNally | 57c | 175.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Tomljanovic | 11c | 163.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 646 | 37.2%240 W · 406 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed McNally | 55c | 162.36$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Tomljanovic | 35c | 145.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…e517backed McNally | 59c | 135.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed McNally | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Tomljanovic | 45c | 111.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c07…34a4backed McNally | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…a116backed Tomljanovic | 42c | 99.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked Tomljanovic | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Tomljanovic | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked McNally | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed McNally | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed McNally | 70c | 86.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…e16cbacked Tomljanovic | 20c | 78.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a40…571dbacked McNally | 79c | 76.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Tomljanovic | 51c | 76.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked McNally | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 497 | 49.9%248 W · 249 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked McNally | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed McNally | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…9d7cbacked McNally | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed McNally | 56c | 69.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Tomljanovic | 35c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…7b8abacked McNally | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7513…110dbacked Tomljanovic | 54c | 65.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…5845backed McNally | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…29d1backed Tomljanovic | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked McNally | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Tomljanovic | 44c | 58.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 392 | 49.7%195 W · 197 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked McNally | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e5…c3d4backed McNally | 57c | 42.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Tomljanovic | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…da3bbacked Tomljanovic | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Tomljanovic | 33c | 33.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…70c5backed McNally | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…276bbacked McNally | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…bf65backed McNally | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c92…9cd9backed Tomljanovic | 44c | 26.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed McNally | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.