TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Cowboys vs. Lions

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lionsof Cowboys, Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,677,885
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,771,446

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,677,885 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,772 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4259…936fbacked Cowboys38c3,119,158$1,195,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195,279.866248.4%30 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Lions61c2,510,100$1,531,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979,087.5317041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Cowboys35c816,802$283,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283,041.5847738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a55…f9bebacked Cowboys37c802,906$300,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300,982.821428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-39.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Lions62c576,774$360,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216,544.0927454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Cowboys39c500,980$196,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196,39210333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Lions62c268,095$167,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,833.9644652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Cowboys39c249,948$96,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,979.384955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Lions62c200,000$124,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,00024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Lions63c187,361$118,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,428.77951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Lions63c185,714$117,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,714.2919553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Lions62c155,555$96,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,110.857554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Lions62c150,000$93,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,0005550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Lions58c147,665$85,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,019.3125956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Lions63c136,358$85,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,452.447348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lions74c136,157$100,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,261.1830043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Cowboys38c134,659$50,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,674.4630743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lions63c112,278$70,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,032.2986547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Cowboys28c101,727$28,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,650.5120755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Lions71c99,735$71,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,579.7216955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Cowboys16c98,107$15,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,681.086459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Lions62c87,097$54,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,096.776459.4%38 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Lions61c82,795$50,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,025.9613560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lions62c81,989$50,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,147.3275852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Lions63c72,289$45,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,815.9621254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Lions62c71,301$44,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,981.3811146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Lions60c70,000$41,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,199.9924957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lions62c64,006$39,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,167.6312744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c81…fce3backed Lions71c62,713$44,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,182.585250%26 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lions61c60,485$37,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,469.231,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Cowboys38c60,000$22,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,599.9614342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Lions62c58,451$36,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,211.3622450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2232…f6fabacked Lions78c58,209$45,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,062.762470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Cowboys38c58,120$22,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,085.4913843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Cowboys37c57,000$21,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,119.99850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Cowboys37c53,836$20,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,093.5112144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Lions68c48,472$32,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,596.1773651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Lions61c47,290$28,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,344.7154451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Lions62c46,665$28,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,904.6210442.3%44 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Lions60c40,000$24,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,899.991154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aeb…be79backed Cowboys39c34,079$13,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,362.361764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed Cowboys40c33,721$13,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,543.6680%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e5d…f75dbacked Cowboys41c32,097$13,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,218.74742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Lions62c30,000$18,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,40016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Cowboys39c30,000$11,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,7005431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Cowboys17c29,412$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0005957.6%34 W · 25 L+7.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Cowboys16c28,397$4,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,637.884634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lions62c26,851$16,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,151.7927348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7153…bf80backed Cowboys21c25,821$5,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,534.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Lions72c25,292$18,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,053.920026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Cowboys20c25,081$4,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,908.9611643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c6f…89b9backed Lions59c25,000$14,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,149.975756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Lions74c23,797$17,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,168.69359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Cowboys19c23,382$4,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3562740.7%11 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Lions63c22,000$13,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,1401968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b92…046ebacked Cowboys16c21,432$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5006936.2%25 W · 44 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Cowboys41c20,750$8,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,469.1153348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Cowboys39c20,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,80031240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Cowboys37c20,000$7,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4005446.3%25 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Cowboys29c20,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,80012944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Lions62c20,000$12,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,60011168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Cowboys41c20,000$8,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,199.9913654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Lions62c19,987$12,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,694.1556852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Lions62c19,715$12,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,475.7911544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lions64c19,691$12,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,131.081,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lions59c19,573$11,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,024.8339447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Cowboys28c19,448$5,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,369.3412138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Cowboys17c18,751$3,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,226.8433328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Cowboys31c17,025$5,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,319.957255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Lions61c17,000$10,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,6305464.8%35 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+32.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Cowboys39c17,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,599.9323937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Cowboys30c16,496$4,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,997.52250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Lions60c16,360$9,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,546.6431854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Cowboys40c16,291$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5004546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Lions62c16,129$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,129.033056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x901c…3cfebacked Cowboys14c15,701$2,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,239.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Lions59c15,620$9,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,404.293268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Cowboys13c15,499$2,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.2568446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92b1…6695backed Cowboys39c15,434$6,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,019.381136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90db…f96cbacked Cowboys41c15,000$6,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,15010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd804…821cbacked Cowboys41c15,000$6,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,1501241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9146…5f30backed Lions64c15,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4002528%7 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe796…7f5ebacked Cowboys9c15,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.993724.3%9 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Lions65c14,713$9,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,211.048532.9%28 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Lions76c14,128$10,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,376.2214349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe756…e006backed Cowboys41c13,890$5,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6952441.7%10 W · 14 L+4.2wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+73.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51b6…efecbacked Cowboys37c13,537$5,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,008.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387c…57b3backed Cowboys38c13,158$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28b1…5a3fbacked Cowboys38c13,151$4,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,997.59359.1%55 W · 38 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Lions79c12,388$9,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,621.834671.7%33 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf60…c76ebacked Cowboys41c12,000$4,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,920540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Lions62c11,680$7,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,438.48856.8%50 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Cowboys36c11,284$4,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,062.43540%14 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Lions75c11,254$8,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,784.0127644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Cowboys10c11,051$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.784143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lions62c11,000$6,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,18083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Lions64c10,938$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,937.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9e…eddcbacked Cowboys35c10,295$3,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,568.091145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+69.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Lions63c10,269$6,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,799.537657.9%44 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+134.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Cowboys39c10,251$3,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,997.9911252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.