TailMyPicks
Market

NFL · resolved market

1H Spread: Lions (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Lionsof Lions, Cowboys
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,485 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa965…3565backed Cowboys45c1,120$509 inLost-$50919439.2%76 W · 118 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lions54c689.64$371 inWon+$318.1875852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Cowboys47c499.99$235 inLost-$2357534.7%26 W · 49 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f12…70d4backed Lions53c430.64$230 inWon+$200.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Lions54c295.28$159 inWon+$135.8315044.7%67 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Lions53c245.28$130 inWon+$115.2828047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e3…b3e8backed Cowboys51c204.58$105 inLost-$1058644.2%38 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Lions49c72.48$36 inWon+$36.9641450.5%209 W · 205 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Lions55c50$28 inWon+$22.515446.8%72 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4f…6dddbacked Lions54c26$14 inWon+$11.962450%12 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.