NFL · resolved market
Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H O/U 27.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc400fbba748b02b03be706b3c191a9453dbdb467ff89f53a21e1d005f689c8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb03b…6ca1backed Over | 49c | 774.16$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Over | 47c | 694$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.28 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 666.34$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.92 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.99 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Under | 53c | 450$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8159…8d5cbacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…814fbacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc352…2ccbbacked Under | 53c | 264.15$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…2003backed Under | 54c | 232.96$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 197$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 46c | 92.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Under | 53c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Under | 54c | 42.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H O/U 27.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lions (-1.5)Lions won
- 1H Spread: Lions (-2.5)Lions won
- Cowboys vs. LionsLions won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H MoneylineLions won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 53.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 54.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 55.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 57.5Over won
- Spread: Lions (-10.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-3.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-4.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-7.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-8.5)Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.