NFL · resolved market
Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 53.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90e132eafa2c91b9dfaa0a73faaa191ef91191c2f2ab2233fbda8af9b1467777
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 2,066$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.57 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Over | 54c | 1,364$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.43 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Under | 47c | 1,134$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.98 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 42c | 1,120$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.39 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 53c | 933.72$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.85 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 58c | 819$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.98 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 604.28$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.71 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Over | 55c | 544.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.75 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Under | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 53c | 450$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.5 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…489fbacked Over | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 58c | 353$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.26 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Over | 55c | 300$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Over | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Over | 53c | 189$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Over | 56c | 177.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd225…569fbacked Over | 54c | 111$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…9249backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 97.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd65…fcfabacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 45c | 89.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb240…f788backed Under | 47c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa158…423bbacked Under | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc2…5786backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 39.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…0accbacked Over | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f73…d330backed Over | 54c | 21.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 53.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lions (-1.5)Lions won
- 1H Spread: Lions (-2.5)Lions won
- Cowboys vs. LionsLions won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H MoneylineLions won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H O/U 27.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 54.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 55.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 57.5Over won
- Spread: Lions (-10.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-3.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-4.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-7.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-8.5)Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.