NFL · resolved market
Spread: Lions (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb1528ac557c01c6b9295a3dabeb7c51b639ec512393d177f38e201ed4465311
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lionsof Lions, Cowboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Lions | 40c | 34,623$13,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,773.54 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Cowboys | 60c | 33,800$20,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,280 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cowboys | 61c | 10,160$6,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,220.74 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Lions | 38c | 8,763$3,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,402.05 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cowboys | 41c | 6,694$2,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,756.07 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lions | 58c | 6,328$3,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,660.65 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…bdc7backed Cowboys | 65c | 4,646$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lions | 39c | 2,588$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.66 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Cowboys | 66c | 2,266$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Lions | 40c | 1,500$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.14 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Cowboys | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lions | 36c | 1,438$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.59 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cowboys | 42c | 1,385$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.32 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Lions | 61c | 1,092$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.36 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lions | 40c | 1,075$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.41 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lions | 50c | 1,069$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.61 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lions | 39c | 1,021$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.81 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…e3b9backed Lions | 41c | 1,009$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Lions | 61c | 781.58$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.36 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Lions | 34c | 729.12$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.45 | 284 | 51.8%147 W · 137 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Cowboys | 33c | 710$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.3 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Cowboys | 61c | 704.51$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.74 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Lions | 55c | 664.11$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.83 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Cowboys | 52c | 582.75$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.15 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…e28cbacked Cowboys | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Cowboys | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Cowboys | 59c | 447.79$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.24 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cowboys | 62c | 414.06$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.66 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Lions | 51c | 338.2$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lions | 60c | 327.44$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.27 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Cowboys | 43c | 326.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lions | 34c | 270$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.19 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cowboys | 46c | 257.58$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Lions | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Lions | 59c | 245$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf526…55c8backed Cowboys | 35c | 243.22$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Cowboys | 59c | 239.71$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.63 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Cowboys | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Lions | 76c | 225$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Cowboys | 52c | 217$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Lions | 40c | 212.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Cowboys | 62c | 209.38$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Cowboys | 63c | 206.76$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Cowboys | 42c | 201.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.91 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Lions | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Cowboys | 61c | 185$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fadabacked Lions | 40c | 170.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x680b…276abacked Cowboys | 46c | 158.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Cowboys | 62c | 155$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Cowboys | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Lions | 43c | 110.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Cowboys | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Cowboys | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Cowboys | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7829…efb2backed Cowboys | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Cowboys | 29c | 91.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641c…565fbacked Lions | 40c | 86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c9…e67ebacked Lions | 39c | 83.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Cowboys | 64c | 78.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…abf0backed Cowboys | 66c | 75.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Lions | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…49d8backed Cowboys | 45c | 62.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 37cpaid | -84%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Cowboys | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Lions | 38c | 55.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Lions | 38c | 53.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Lions | 38c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Cowboys | 60c | 51.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9172…2e79backed Cowboys | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…6ad8backed Cowboys | 38c | 49.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Cowboys | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lions | 57c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…e5cabacked Cowboys | 42c | 45.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Cowboys | 41c | 37.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Cowboys | 62c | 34.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19c9…2e09backed Cowboys | 62c | 33.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Cowboys | 62c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Cowboys | 66c | 26.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…2a30backed Cowboys | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5b…1da6backed Lions | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…d39abacked Cowboys | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lions (-1.5)Lions won
- 1H Spread: Lions (-2.5)Lions won
- Cowboys vs. LionsLions won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H MoneylineLions won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H O/U 27.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 53.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 54.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 55.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 57.5Over won
- Spread: Lions (-10.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-3.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-4.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-7.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-8.5)Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.