NFL · resolved market
Spread: Lions (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4967019a08f661a0b553bcfeede2527383893ea7ca6e1f8acd341bbe5f1e3259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lionsof Lions, Cowboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Cowboys | 54c | 26,330$14,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,217.98 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lions | 46c | 13,836$6,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,485.11 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Lions | 46c | 8,788$4,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,745.25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Lions | 44c | 7,141$3,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,986.69 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lions | 45c | 5,836$2,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,238.33 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48be…73a8backed Cowboys | 56c | 4,464$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Lions | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Cowboys | 56c | 1,161$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…e3b9backed Lions | 45c | 900$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cowboys | 56c | 883$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.48 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cowboys | 54c | 833.62$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.16 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Cowboys | 55c | 826.25$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.17 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Lions | 44c | 504.22$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.95 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Cowboys | 55c | 503.46$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.9 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Cowboys | 55c | 409.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.5 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc352…2ccbbacked Cowboys | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c7…4f5ebacked Cowboys | 56c | 228.57$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d3…02e4backed Cowboys | 56c | 223.21$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lions | 46c | 205$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Cowboys | 56c | 201.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…9ad0backed Cowboys | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Cowboys | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…9391backed Cowboys | 55c | 194.25$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cowboys | 56c | 183.27$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.63 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Cowboys | 55c | 181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Cowboys | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cowboys | 40c | 115$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…1dc4backed Cowboys | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…7742backed Cowboys | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Lions | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…a510backed Lions | 44c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cowboys | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6eb…7b17backed Cowboys | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cce…91f7backed Cowboys | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Cowboys | 58c | 34.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Cowboys | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Lions | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Cowboys | 53c | 27.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Cowboys | 57c | 25.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lions (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lions (-1.5)Lions won
- 1H Spread: Lions (-2.5)Lions won
- Cowboys vs. LionsLions won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H MoneylineLions won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H O/U 27.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 53.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 54.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 55.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 57.5Over won
- Spread: Lions (-10.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-3.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-7.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-8.5)Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.