NFL · resolved market
Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 55.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c5a3e43be28b15c7d2ea27863a516431f43fb15cbf184fd3e33b711f81f9503
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 78,895$38,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,291.19 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Under | 51c | 57,460$29,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,304.83 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 51c | 18,316$9,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,374.89 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 51c | 15,000$7,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,700 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 10,574$5,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,479.37 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…efecbacked Over | 51c | 9,847$5,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,834.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 8,662$4,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,504.02 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,159.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 51c | 6,792$3,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,492.73 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 51c | 4,555$2,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.05 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…c59cbacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Under | 52c | 3,467$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 53c | 2,258$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a1…6657backed Over | 48c | 1,621$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 1,535$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.49 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 50c | 1,421$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.5 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 48c | 1,210$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.2 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda1e…f3cdbacked Under | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Under | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 57c | 497$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.54 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 48c | 493.56$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.41 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Under | 53c | 438.96$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.65 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7e17backed Under | 53c | 366.7$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.35 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 242$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.84 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 205$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…7a53backed Under | 51c | 194.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Over | 49c | 121.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Under | 52c | 115.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 43c | 104.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…dc8bbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Over | 48c | 82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 55.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lions (-1.5)Lions won
- 1H Spread: Lions (-2.5)Lions won
- Cowboys vs. LionsLions won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H MoneylineLions won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H O/U 27.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 53.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 54.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 57.5Over won
- Spread: Lions (-10.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-3.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-4.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-7.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-8.5)Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.