Fifa International · resolved market
Will Netherlands vs. Lithuania end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0953f0c1287d7922962bec0a79ba29db574bcbf0f0025ffab2eeb20a3015fe26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x726e…77cebacked Yes | 5c | 15,344$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…e792backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 6c | 3,444$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.76 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe923…0779backed Yes | 6c | 1,586$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.96 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…1c3bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…ad31backed Yes | 5c | 1,383$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 4c | 999.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1089…830ebacked Yes | 5c | 942.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 4c | 875$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 8c | 801.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Yes | 5c | 739.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…9d7cbacked Yes | 3c | 625.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ee…19f6backed Yes | 6c | 533.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9659…f19abacked Yes | 5c | 478.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…eab6backed Yes | 6c | 462.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Yes | 5c | 405$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac01…2d77backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…7d04backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a4…fca5backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 4c | 293.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 5c | 200.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…23dcbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…557abacked Yes | 11c | 167.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netherlands vs. Lithuania end in a draw?this page
- Will Lithuania win on 2025-11-17?No won
- Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.