Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8b744720006da3c08b4dc8a61a5ce930542f550fcf8d27380ae898de636799d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,748,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,230,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,748,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 8,582 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,675,126$257,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257,744.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…05bcbacked Yes | 20c | 1,499,999$299,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298,999.93 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…846dbacked Yes | 11c | 847,112$91,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91,409.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d6…d57fbacked No | 78c | 835,831$653,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182,772.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 80c | 757,409$605,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152,138.82 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 9c | 614,488$54,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,242.18 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 78c | 552,386$431,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120,919.72 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked Yes | 15c | 534,637$80,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80,363.15 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…a593backed No | 79c | 480,125$380,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,122.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 19c | 425,573$80,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80,699.11 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…75a8backed Yes | 7c | 400,100$29,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,957.89 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 9c | 349,800$32,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,727.6 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked Yes | 17c | 299,297$50,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,844.42 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…c665backed No | 78c | 296,138$231,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,987.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…fb37backed Yes | 18c | 288,167$52,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,106.78 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd337…ca8fbacked Yes | 20c | 287,358$57,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,464.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 18c | 285,969$52,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,078.69 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 5c | 236,452$12,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,221.78 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e29…6572backed Yes | 18c | 224,979$40,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,015.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +493.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 9c | 216,130$20,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,478.07 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13f…ec7cbacked Yes | 7c | 206,441$14,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,528.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379e…6893backed No | 74c | 204,392$150,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,874.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…2093backed Yes | 9c | 200,974$17,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,156.16 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed No | 78c | 199,999$155,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,999.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 78c | 192,620$150,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,051.55 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…5000backed Yes | 24c | 190,420$46,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,613.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…83b8backed Yes | 7c | 184,730$13,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,068.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0f…7b84backed Yes | 22c | 181,621$39,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,956.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…4471backed Yes | 28c | 180,900$49,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,772 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed66…90dfbacked Yes | 3c | 173,977$5,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,197.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7c…cbc3backed Yes | 30c | 173,448$51,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,419.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…f18fbacked Yes | 19c | 171,812$33,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,419.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 159,188$2,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,308.5 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 14c | 157,801$21,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,490.96 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e39…0055backed Yes | 14c | 157,456$22,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,050.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 20c | 157,343$31,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,652.37 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…e8b8backed Yes | 21c | 155,501$32,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,720.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 17c | 155,397$26,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,186.52 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…ffe2backed Yes | 3c | 154,160$4,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,731.62 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a5…430fbacked Yes | 1c | 152,813$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…7e3ebacked Yes | 19c | 151,411$29,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,098.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 8c | 144,677$11,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,177.87 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 9c | 143,266$13,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,122.24 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 80c | 138,925$110,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,378.66 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 4c | 136,518$5,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,763.02 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes | 18c | 133,741$24,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,140.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x316a…c449backed Yes | 6c | 133,333$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,999.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…dfd0backed Yes | 10c | 131,724$12,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,886.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 80c | 124,999$99,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,549.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd048…976fbacked Yes | 6c | 122,257$7,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,603 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 17c | 118,940$20,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,702.32 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…06fbbacked Yes | 7c | 118,477$8,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,305.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed Yes | 19c | 114,805$21,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,519.37 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 13c | 112,278$14,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,233.89 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 5c | 110,128$5,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,651.7 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976d…7de0backed Yes | 7c | 104,560$7,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,623.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +151%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 22c | 102,350$22,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,560.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…5eb8backed Yes | 22c | 100,660$22,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,179.14 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 1c | 100,001$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.54 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 18c | 98,654$17,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,700.53 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 13c | 97,715$13,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,161.09 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1913…b494backed Yes | 21c | 96,757$20,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,020 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aea…90e9backed Yes | 2c | 96,450$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf958…db13backed Yes | 21c | 95,000$19,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,950 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 19c | 93,237$17,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,595.4 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 70c | 92,687$65,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,472.81 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fe…2a19backed Yes | 21c | 88,896$18,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,229.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…e290backed Yes | 6c | 88,876$5,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,402.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 8c | 87,597$6,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,610.86 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…10e7backed Yes | 3c | 87,220$2,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,346 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 3c | 86,135$2,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,648.23 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…8423backed Yes | 21c | 85,612$17,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,691 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab7…c761backed Yes | 18c | 81,663$14,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,525.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ef…4859backed Yes | 8c | 79,783$6,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,590.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 80c | 79,700$63,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,129 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe344…3afabacked Yes | 1c | 79,162$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 9c | 78,918$6,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,938.69 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d06…94c6backed Yes | 19c | 78,887$14,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,988.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1222…2aa7backed Yes | 20c | 78,747$15,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,765.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 21c | 78,353$16,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,818 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 13c | 77,379$9,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,811.73 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…136fbacked Yes | 19c | 73,684$14,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3511…e3bdbacked Yes | 19c | 73,596$13,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,983.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes | 20c | 70,978$14,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,489.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ac…88c9backed Yes | 21c | 70,941$14,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,989.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5889…74e8backed Yes | 5c | 70,839$3,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,312.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc503…8bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 70,504$14,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,905 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 18c | 69,053$12,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,533.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…c522backed Yes | 1c | 67,651$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b76…94fdbacked Yes | 6c | 67,303$4,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,038.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed No | 78c | 66,287$51,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,313.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…c444backed Yes | 12c | 64,967$8,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,098.54 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5e11backed Yes | 17c | 64,444$10,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,917.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Yes | 13c | 62,890$7,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,908.27 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab06…689bbacked Yes | 24c | 62,800$14,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,915.26 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8c20backed Yes | 21c | 62,489$12,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,995.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…7805backed Yes | 19c | 62,183$11,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,814.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…0379backed Yes | 16c | 62,110$9,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,763.46 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 12c | 60,485$6,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,998.52 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 59,357$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.4 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.