Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5e2c76090cc15dc1e613fd61b9a2cee9b76c9097a6c313f256df55d2df5149c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,992,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,513,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,992,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 746 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x768c…015dbacked Yes | 5c | 399,889$19,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,213.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…75a8backed Yes | 6c | 307,414$16,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,913.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…ab0ebacked No | 78c | 213,387$165,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,639.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 2c | 200,242$4,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,003.63 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…6634backed Yes | 28c | 124,154$34,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,549.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 8c | 106,496$8,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,201.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 76c | 89,039$67,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,770.92 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e3…4603backed Yes | 10c | 83,299$8,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,578.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 77c | 75,097$57,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,159.62 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…ab78backed Yes | 8c | 61,165$4,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,858.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 72c | 58,579$42,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,301.28 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 44,204$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.92 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…20a4backed Yes | 7c | 36,036$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa884…fbaabacked Yes | 7c | 35,063$2,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,473.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 72c | 29,549$21,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,420.19 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 2c | 27,746$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.48 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d3…9633backed Yes | 28c | 24,529$6,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,777.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 23c | 21,684$4,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,968.18 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…38acbacked Yes | 6c | 21,227$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…b0c0backed Yes | 10c | 18,990$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 18,900$2,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,554.59 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…9290backed Yes | 33c | 17,945$5,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,998 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 5c | 17,702$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.36 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc9…9bc2backed Yes | 2c | 16,895$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 2c | 15,942$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 27c | 15,818$4,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,223.83 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 44c | 14,801$6,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,448.28 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b13…91a1backed Yes | 6c | 14,689$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…94e1backed Yes | 14c | 14,395$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,062.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 79c | 14,291$11,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,037.34 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e31…901ebacked Yes | 32c | 13,723$4,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,362.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 18cpaid | +580.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…d59ebacked No | 73c | 13,714$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,713.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e95…12f8backed Yes | 35c | 13,588$4,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,703.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707f…5dc7backed Yes | 11c | 13,100$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 39c | 13,000$5,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,058.44 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 71c | 12,450$8,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,659.4 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…08e9backed Yes | 3c | 12,395$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 16c | 12,338$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981.13 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e1…ec8fbacked Yes | 29c | 12,040$3,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,491.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…ae0fbacked Yes | 12c | 11,551$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c2…110bbacked Yes | 3c | 11,232$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…91bdbacked Yes | 30c | 10,854$3,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,225 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 10,665$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.12 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 75c | 10,441$7,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,589.27 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…d29ebacked Yes | 8c | 10,194$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 52c | 10,059$5,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,819.7 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd89…29bebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…4353backed Yes | 25c | 10,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 72c | 9,775$7,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,721.06 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f71…1016backed Yes | 7c | 9,589$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.96 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3446…b0c6backed Yes | 1c | 9,479$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 0c | 9,378$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 9c | 8,382$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.7 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…9506backed Yes | 31c | 8,345$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed Yes | 7c | 8,309$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 14c | 8,229$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…1802backed Yes | 30c | 7,980$2,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,393.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 7,882$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…9030backed Yes | 26c | 7,692$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f85…9adcbacked Yes | 6c | 7,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes | 6c | 7,266$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4785…cdfdbacked Yes | 22c | 7,211$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 75c | 7,046$5,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.51 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 20c | 7,044$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.03 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…d1ebbacked Yes | 32c | 6,937$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cf…3e19backed Yes | 2c | 6,540$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 76c | 6,496$4,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.44 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 13c | 6,400$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.99 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…2357backed Yes | 8c | 6,249$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 30c | 6,150$1,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.09 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…c4e4backed Yes | 23c | 6,064$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd797…eb1cbacked Yes | 17c | 6,023$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8771…9ed0backed Yes | 31c | 5,785$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,808.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ef…5990backed Yes | 14c | 5,565$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…68abbacked Yes | 30c | 5,535$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…794dbacked Yes | 21c | 5,236$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ef…0214backed Yes | 19c | 5,059$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 60c | 5,056$3,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.49 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9640…283ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,021$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…f117backed No | 71c | 5,000$3,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…a0b9backed Yes | 7c | 4,949$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe8…4a57backed No | 61c | 4,916$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,917.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…d9e3backed Yes | 0c | 4,750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +81%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…9d3cbacked Yes | 32c | 4,641$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 26c | 4,500$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8065…1da3backed Yes | 15c | 4,457$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…481bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,442$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02b…9e76backed Yes | 30c | 4,166$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…8b63backed Yes | 10c | 4,150$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c15…ecf4backed Yes | 25c | 4,005$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 30c | 4,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 16c | 3,997$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 31c | 3,995$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.46 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Yes | 42c | 3,973$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 1c | 3,968$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64f…b82bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,926$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,904$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 3,790$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0543…3ebbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,786$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 1c | 3,749$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.