TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8771…9ed0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
27
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+126.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,808Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,808.22
Will Trump be impeached in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$147.55
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Donald Trump give Elon Musk a nickname before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon register the America Party in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$490
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$201
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+529.4%+$635.24
US military action against Iran by Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+1,164.5%+$407.57
US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+267.8%+$1,127.62
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+105.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$441Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$441
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+310.9%+$404.21
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$112.53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James be traded this offseason?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stefon Diggs: Anytime Touchdownbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will @Grok resume replying by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by August 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. win by KO/TKO/DQ?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.