Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab6faa3e66abacc484bbb4bd31ae5e2a56d6f6252b5023631f1bd9e5299fa2f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,847,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,459,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,847,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,039 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 7c | 720,000$51,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,369.15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 368,811$17,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,855.93 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…7ebbbacked Yes | 4c | 359,765$14,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcb…3e9ebacked Yes | 12c | 356,848$43,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,376.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…8bbfbacked Yes | 13c | 328,212$41,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,740 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…b476backed Yes | 7c | 239,356$17,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,314.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…6ef7backed Yes | 9c | 219,196$20,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,071.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 215,478$15,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,438.88 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…9701backed Yes | 5c | 212,856$9,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,995.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 11c | 206,207$23,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,247.51 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2648…36a0backed Yes | 2c | 195,183$3,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,926.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 180,819$11,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,192.21 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 177,777$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…c06fbacked Yes | 6c | 176,148$10,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,979.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e2…3a76backed Yes | 6c | 172,419$10,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,221 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…dc42backed Yes | 9c | 169,014$14,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,906.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 4c | 167,871$6,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,715.56 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…dfa4backed Yes | 3c | 167,211$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602f…d46abacked Yes | 4c | 158,382$6,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,588.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…527abacked Yes | 10c | 151,781$14,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,726.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6e…f73dbacked Yes | 6c | 150,000$9,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,347.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x575a…bba6backed Yes | 7c | 145,809$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 145,171$7,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,808.85 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 4c | 142,107$6,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,105.44 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…5be1backed Yes | 7c | 132,664$9,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,654.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…635cbacked Yes | 12c | 132,454$15,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,731.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 13c | 129,829$16,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,284.6 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 3c | 126,817$4,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,183.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 3c | 125,977$4,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,310.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…289cbacked Yes | 5c | 123,793$5,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,838.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 5c | 122,102$5,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,775.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…2415backed Yes | 10c | 119,319$11,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,985.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc72a…4dcbbacked Yes | 5c | 116,084$5,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,476.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 6c | 110,858$6,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,367.83 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…e387backed Yes | 8c | 106,445$8,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,914.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes | 2c | 104,416$2,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,494.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…15f9backed Yes | 5c | 102,051$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…e83fbacked Yes | 8c | 100,015$8,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,187.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed1…25a7backed Yes | 7c | 98,074$6,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,624.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d3…12d8backed Yes | 5c | 96,089$5,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,138.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b6…21eabacked Yes | 7c | 93,832$6,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,201.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11b…cf6bbacked Yes | 15c | 91,303$13,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,496.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…9230backed Yes | 6c | 90,258$5,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,194.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f23…db5dbacked Yes | 6c | 90,106$4,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,997.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…6cb0backed Yes | 7c | 83,759$5,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,586.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffa…b3c4backed Yes | 9c | 81,003$6,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,953.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes | 11c | 80,643$9,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 4c | 80,526$3,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,438.24 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d32…fcc0backed Yes | 3c | 80,325$2,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,644.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…64e4backed Yes | 5c | 79,749$3,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,608.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…ab2abacked Yes | 13c | 78,980$9,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,978 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f4…9bb1backed Yes | 6c | 77,764$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…b6afbacked Yes | 3c | 75,340$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…1904backed Yes | 10c | 75,000$7,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,712.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…1f51backed Yes | 5c | 73,588$3,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,679.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 11c | 71,274$7,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,608.05 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898c…039ebacked Yes | 7c | 69,420$5,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,050.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16d…bcebbacked Yes | 9c | 69,043$6,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,180.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Yes | 9c | 68,462$6,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,096.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9758…536dbacked Yes | 4c | 68,127$2,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,683.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 3c | 67,395$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,020 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeab…3516backed Yes | 12c | 64,441$7,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,815.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…5a20backed Yes | 7c | 64,272$4,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,788.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…160ebacked Yes | 16c | 62,716$10,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,017.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…4cd8backed Yes | 0c | 60,100$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked Yes | 12c | 59,710$7,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,157.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…684cbacked Yes | 2c | 59,142$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 3c | 55,556$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,844.44 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…bf11backed Yes | 4c | 55,309$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,485.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 2c | 54,497$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.07 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…2322backed Yes | 8c | 51,734$4,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,158.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc504…6bd3backed Yes | 10c | 51,685$5,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,009.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…6894backed Yes | 3c | 51,070$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bc…569bbacked Yes | 16c | 51,053$8,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,163.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes | 5c | 50,013$2,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,455 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 9c | 50,001$4,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,357.02 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 13c | 50,000$6,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,634.9 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1331…a406backed Yes | 12c | 49,194$5,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,798.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 5c | 48,929$2,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.02 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 4c | 48,699$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.66 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb898…1288backed Yes | 5c | 48,170$2,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,217.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…cd01backed Yes | 4c | 46,109$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 45,742$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.71 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6627…898bbacked Yes | 9c | 45,725$4,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 5c | 45,566$2,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…9452backed Yes | 11c | 45,346$4,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,967.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe385…2e82backed Yes | 6c | 44,574$2,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,745 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 11c | 44,548$4,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,856.48 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed0…11a8backed Yes | 3c | 44,168$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…18c5backed Yes | 3c | 43,786$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8926…203dbacked Yes | 8c | 43,404$3,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,267 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…f775backed Yes | 4c | 41,867$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked Yes | 12c | 41,767$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdf…0d0ebacked Yes | 4c | 41,527$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…f2d1backed Yes | 6c | 40,925$2,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Yes | 11c | 40,541$4,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,639.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 7c | 40,031$2,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850.95 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 3c | 39,973$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7939…bcd4backed Yes | 4c | 39,106$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 5c | 38,311$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820.35 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.