Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5da735d02685c478a4c702dd31fa4b8ff4d82bb4fbeda3fe5cbeb8d4b2534e93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $974,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,107,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $974,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8a4…2969backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…dfa4backed Yes | 1c | 29,821$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes | 0c | 21,497$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,950$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1317…16ebbacked Yes | 0c | 16,163$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 0c | 15,243$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 12,843$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.64 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb414…da07backed Yes | 3c | 10,481$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…8d02backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…4cd8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 1c | 9,058$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af4…2d25backed Yes | 0c | 7,362$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 0c | 7,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 2c | 6,773$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.03 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…24f4backed Yes | 3c | 6,516$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 6,143$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x568a…4ba4backed Yes | 0c | 5,969$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b10…fcebbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 4,667$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 0c | 4,426$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2d…e02dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…b1a8backed Yes | 1c | 3,515$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…641cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,434$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 4c | 2,948$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…7820backed Yes | 4c | 2,709$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 1c | 2,594$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x565f…215abacked Yes | 4c | 2,567$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…8df9backed Yes | 3c | 2,540$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…aac8backed Yes | 2c | 2,508$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8f2dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,336$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…2c6abacked Yes | 1c | 2,330$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25df…6fffbacked Yes | 2c | 2,247$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71df…3fafbacked Yes | 1c | 2,223$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92a…2818backed Yes | 1c | 2,201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91b…4929backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ee…5394backed Yes | 1c | 1,668$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 1c | 1,666$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c1…0eb3backed Yes | 2c | 1,602$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1619…2602backed Yes | 2c | 1,427$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…a52cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,357$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d32…4911backed Yes | 2c | 1,289$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7613…4743backed Yes | 3c | 1,194$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5378…babcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,164$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe90…7dfbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 4c | 1,106$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce0…53cebacked Yes | 3c | 1,057$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,026$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e3…d1bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5804…a6abbacked Yes | 2c | 943$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…be5ebacked Yes | 1c | 919.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 3c | 900$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 838.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…50cbbacked Yes | 1c | 822.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f5…dc90backed Yes | 2c | 802$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8422…eb6abacked Yes | 2c | 741$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4e…e15fbacked Yes | 2c | 716$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…9158backed Yes | 2c | 709$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…d5bdbacked Yes | 2c | 699$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes | 3c | 689.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4171…3e4cbacked Yes | 2c | 688$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b8…ecfabacked Yes | 2c | 678$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff8b…effcbacked Yes | 2c | 642.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…da26backed Yes | 3c | 640$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…d565backed Yes | 2c | 620.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1910…1613backed Yes | 2c | 616$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8f…a616backed Yes | 2c | 602$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…bbcfbacked Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…9100backed Yes | 2c | 590$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 3c | 572.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbf…d188backed Yes | 2c | 561$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac14…1d3fbacked Yes | 2c | 556$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5614…9febbacked Yes | 2c | 554$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde80…81a4backed Yes | 2c | 553.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed Yes | 2c | 533.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…ee79backed Yes | 2c | 527.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdd…b061backed Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1932…aab5backed Yes | 2c | 523.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…9114backed Yes | 2c | 512$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43e…7afabacked Yes | 2c | 508$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce3…b4b2backed Yes | 2c | 491$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…78c1backed Yes | 2c | 484.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba66…2c2dbacked Yes | 2c | 447$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?this page
- Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.