NBA · resolved market
Will LeBron James be traded this offseason?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb0457f6b1b206fa85d6deb8888271aa2b2776c0eaf309fa520755ab31529936
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ed0…4e80backed Yes | 16c | 2,861$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…cc9abacked Yes | 2c | 2,734$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 8c | 2,682$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.45 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 80c | 943.6$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa310…4c56backed Yes | 11c | 869.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 29c | 861.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 78c | 578$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.08 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…4302backed Yes | 14c | 457.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 13c | 452.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8771…9ed0backed Yes | 24c | 419.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 378.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…e766backed Yes | 18c | 278.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed9…2f3fbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…8d60backed Yes | 54c | 185.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb111…0128backed Yes | 24c | 179.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c5…7cfebacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…3ce0backed Yes | 20c | 161$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…f953backed Yes | 13c | 149.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 12c | 140.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 9c | 113.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 10c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 106.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c9…dd97backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a2…0b23backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1618…7d90backed Yes | 15c | 73.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…34b0backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.