TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$135,327
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$135,084

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,327 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf4b9…cf5ebacked Yes1c25,303$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6db…b117backed Yes3c5,031$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+291.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes6c3,905$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.8511428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes6c3,580$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.484027.5%11 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes17c3,000$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.418231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes21c2,911$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.7411538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes30c2,469$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.3616544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae78…701cbacked Yes5c2,192$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x654b…c791backed Yes5c2,161$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes26c2,130$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.553928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes2c1,988$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7918746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes43c1,660$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.84946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes2c1,607$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1328320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes12c1,375$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.673537.1%13 W · 22 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick15cpaid+177.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes1c1,150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed Yes3c1,100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.75922%13 W · 46 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+74.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c1,058$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5833313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26014940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6030…5e0fbacked No57c999.99$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-58.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf73c…9533backed Yes43c913.24$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No73c858.3$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.094436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x310a…4f04backed Yes10c820$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e4…fd34backed No77c814$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No71c809.99$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.63959%23 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes48c737.2$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.728750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8771…9ed0backed Yes29c701.05$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+126.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No53c678.33$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.827751.9%40 W · 37 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+50.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed No78c648.32$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.547646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes6c617.45$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3439522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b56…1990backed Yes5c550.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa591…9079backed No79c549.21$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.552748.1%13 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick62cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No77c548.24$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.0637740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffdd…c06fbacked No75c530$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.93647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No66c513.53$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.099958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c492.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.211,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed Yes19c474.09$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c463.02$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8344111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x50e6…e838backed Yes5c450$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50ff…e0b8backed No69c435.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.24862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick35cpaid+70.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ecc…3739backed Yes5c424.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20130%0 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8933…1495backed No67c422.3$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.3850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e9…fa1dbacked Yes25c404.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes9c403.72$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2356733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd680…2251backed No77c400$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No76c350$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.511031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e22…644dbacked Yes14c342.86$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No76c303.11$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.112846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes23c290.81$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.33020%6 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7214…433bbacked No61c288.2$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.181631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick55cpaid-55.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes9c275$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.753417.6%6 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No78c260$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.217355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No47c255.28$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9610950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc1cd…d1adbacked Yes10c250.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Yes24c247.5$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No78c246$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7522347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bfb…89adbacked Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7f…be25backed No69c236.93$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.392055%11 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe497…5403backed No70c234.99$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.35666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes35c234.17$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7358.6%3 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes10c234.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0733627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes22c228.1$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2313556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5543…4195backed No71c214.08$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.08850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes16c208.91$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3336527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No77c200.5$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeede…8a73backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-40.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe870…6bf8backed No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed Yes29c196.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.124544.4%20 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes53c184.11$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.583729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf3…4ec6backed Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+66.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed No65c181$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.357441.9%31 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ce…0d06backed Yes17c179.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb34…2423backed Yes17c178.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.312744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-26.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3d77…abd5backed No60c175$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.953171%22 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x656e…65d2backed Yes9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152920.7%6 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked No78c162.69$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.532147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x840e…ddbebacked Yes7c157.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fa7…37fbbacked Yes17c153.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.691060%6 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+42.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0cb0…01f6backed Yes30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454139%16 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+69.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No71c146.03$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.778355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes42c142.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602035%7 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-45.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x26df…f747backed No77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.872969%20 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x749b…cdaebacked Yes32c126.41$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6251…e10cbacked No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes26c123.08$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322025%5 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9c…115fbacked Yes17c120.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5874…05f7backed Yes37c116.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.854057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x247d…7d27backed Yes43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe781…5e52backed No65c104.64$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.643548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed No64c102$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7210338.8%40 W · 63 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1019638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118529.4%25 W · 60 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e2…25f7backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.241540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c60…67c1backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252673.1%19 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+5.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes23c99.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2316643.4%72 W · 94 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e0…b36abacked Yes51c98.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…a7b0backed No69c88.88$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.751154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes27c87.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9822641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.