TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf52f…c3f1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Music, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Music at 51 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2035%7 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-45.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$5.32
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+70.3%+$14.07
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$161.91
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$105.92
US government shutdown in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$112.86
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.62
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT+118.2%+$69.04
Harvard international students ban ended before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+76.8%+$147.06
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$17.57
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,875Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,874.61
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$570
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$960Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+42.8%+$410.63
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+25.6%+$15.34
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$205.19
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$381.37
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$211.88
Trump x Khamenei talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 20 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+46.6%+$74.49
Netanyahu out by 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$56.41
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$15.03
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu again before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+64.7%+$55.66
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$738Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$737.87
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,242Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,241.84
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,834Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+32.5%+$921.68
Another Israel strike on Yemen by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$469Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+52.9%+$248.19
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$5
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$286.32
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Khamenei seen in public before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 16 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,261Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$1,261.04
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$5,573Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+54.8%+$3,053.93
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$8,824Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+101.5%+$8,957.94
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$2,008Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$2,008
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$107.03
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,650Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$1,650.05
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$2,881Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,880.54
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$839Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$838.59
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,045Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+65.9%+$688.41
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT+100.3%+$110.37
Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80–89?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+82%+$98.45
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,296Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,296.37
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+148.1%+$164.92
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+48.4%+$71.55
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+110.6%+$110.57
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$4,020Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37.8%+$1,521.01
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.73
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Russia announces air truce by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+83.2%+$161.31
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,544Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,543.61
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$583Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$583.1
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Diddy be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+44.6%+$37.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$285.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford backed Canelo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$422.23
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.