Us Politics · resolved market
Trump x Khamenei talk before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfadacc133ce62a342f5237b69c9fa861d11cf90633bf047384c4729635c440ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $242,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 4c | 16,612$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…dfd1backed Yes | 6c | 12,094$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 6c | 12,018$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 5c | 10,008$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.85 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…099bbacked Yes | 6c | 8,680$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 4c | 7,074$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.71 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 5,406$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.04 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 4,994$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.17 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 6c | 4,966$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 3c | 4,916$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.03 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 5c | 3,878$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.69 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 4c | 3,492$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83c…92bfbacked Yes | 11c | 3,262$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…67b0backed Yes | 4c | 2,963$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…0245backed Yes | 18c | 2,839$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 2,671$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.18 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…625bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,101$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 4c | 2,086$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,042$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…07b9backed Yes | 2c | 2,012$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,951$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…b0e6backed Yes | 6c | 1,592$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c9…cef3backed Yes | 7c | 1,333$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +176%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…e251backed Yes | 8c | 1,075$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 904.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 6c | 861.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 3c | 827.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 4c | 773.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Yes | 2c | 763.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 5c | 750$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes | 3c | 724.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…0800backed Yes | 5c | 701$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +180.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 5c | 700$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 11c | 690$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 660.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 2c | 638.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 8c | 588.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…4781backed Yes | 10c | 570$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…95e6backed Yes | 5c | 523.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…37ebbacked Yes | 3c | 520.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 22cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 5c | 502.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec01…6592backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e72…0306backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +212.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0875…646bbacked Yes | 4c | 483.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…04f5backed Yes | 7c | 475.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…4d16backed Yes | 6c | 450.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe757…8047backed Yes | 4c | 374.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +256%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes | 9c | 350$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 5c | 339.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…f0f5backed Yes | 5c | 326.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d6…17cebacked Yes | 7c | 313.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a04…ae43backed Yes | 5c | 301$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2067…50abbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…7c4fbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc1…95abbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…2436backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 80c | 244.25$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…c285backed Yes | 8c | 237.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…7de9backed Yes | 5c | 205.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x712a…76b1backed Yes | 11c | 203$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…fd5dbacked Yes | 6c | 184.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110e…c46cbacked Yes | 11c | 149.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…cb53backed Yes | 8c | 146.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.