TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5e65…7bc1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
230
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST4134.1%14 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$94.5
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$30
Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+100%+$60
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+606.5%+$1,469.64
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+183.9%+$174.9
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$107.2
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$29.2
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$608Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$607.63
Will Maurice Kamto win the Cameroon Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.9
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$135.33
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$301
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.34
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$95.97
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$662Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$661.6
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$201.61
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$86.76
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+31.2%+$83.37
Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+25%+$17
Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for the Defense of Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Burundian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+25%+$18
Will valid votes be between 34 million and 36 million in South Korean election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+158.3%+$174.87
Will valid votes be between 32 million and 34 million in South Korean election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$148.95
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$406.79
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$218.8
Will Lee Jae-myung win Busan (부산) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.2
Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$559.75
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST3935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$600
Ghislaine Maxwell accuses Trump of sexual misconduct?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$111.9
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+62.7%+$104.1
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+50.6%+$29.87
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.84
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.5
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$282.3
Menswear Guy deported before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.37
Will AG Blanche meet with Ghislaine Maxwell by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT+40.6%+$101
Will Andrew Cuomo win Manhattan in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$91.2
Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$168.24
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.2
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+751.1%+$282.39
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.6
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$143.24
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.6
Trump approval >45% on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+93.1%+$109.77
Will the next reconciliation bill be passed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.5
Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+45.1%+$74.6
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Trump x Khamenei talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.6
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$61.6
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$309.99
Will Trump suspend habeas corpus before July? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.9
Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$84
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+244.8%+$390.5
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$389.17
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$74.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+59.1%+$52.16
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.56
US x Iran ceasefire before August? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+52.8%+$76
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$101
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$73.13
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.4
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+76.1%+$33.7
Strike on Israel's Dimonah nuclear base in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+37%+$43.2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+27.7%+$62.93
Israel strike on Iran on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.5
US x Iran ceasefire before July? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$202.09
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.04
Israel strike on Iran on June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.5
Israel strike on Iran on June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$77.5
Israel strike on Iran on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Israel strike on Iran on June 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.2
Israel announces end of military operations against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$357.5
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+148.2%+$410.34
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+256.4%+$65.48
Iran x Israel conflict ends by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.43
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$50.24
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+113.9%+$106.63
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,039Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$406.53
Will Russia enter Toretske by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$56
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+31.2%+$107
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+170.3%+$144.9
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$401Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+130.8%+$525.17
Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$226.4
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+51.5%+$51
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+54.3%+$38
Trump x Putin talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$204.09
Trump x Putin talk before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$178.4
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.35
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$426Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+111.3%+$474
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by next Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST-100%-$222.99
All 15 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$5,277Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,276.7
Bulls vs. Clippersbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,680Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,679.8
Wizards vs. Magicbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$988Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$987.83
76ers vs. Pistonsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.04
Hornets vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,960Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,960
Pistons vs. Kingsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+28.2%+$14.38
Pelicans vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+29.9%+$15.23
Hornets vs. Pistonsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$3,198Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$3,198
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$15,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$15,009.99
Clippers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$14,630Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+29.9%+$4,370
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$5,804Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+222.2%+$12,896
Suns vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+25%+$2.75
Hawks vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$5,110Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$5,110
Heat vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$5.75
Will Stephen Curry Return This Series?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$72
All 15 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2025, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$39
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.65
Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.11
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+305.7%+$854.67
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$149.65
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.16
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+111%+$114.58
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+26.9%+$31.8
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 23–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.92
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.4
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.6
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 2–9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$51
All 14 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$31
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$540
Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+30.4%+$13
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+31.6%+$14.16
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$73
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5m and $7m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$71
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $3m and $5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.6
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be $7m or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.6
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.75
Will 'Fight or Flight' gross between $1.2-1.5m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$18.2
Will 'Fight or Flight' gross more than $1.5m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+39.9%+$65.6
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.1%+$32.7
Grokipedia released by October 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+25.9%+$35
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$121
OpenAI social app in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.1
Grok 4 released by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+79.6%+$119.7
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.7
Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+27.3%+$45.8
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.37
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+54.5%+$148.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$8,342Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$14,831.01
SHL: Faerjestad vs. HV 71backed Faerjestad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.92
Jets vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$11,040Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+44.9%+$4,959.97
Canucks vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+31.6%+$3.47
Islanders vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$5,734Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$5,734
Kings vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,071Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$1,071
Sharks vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Blackhawks vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 8 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+215.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+86.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liam Rosenior be the next Chelsea manager?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$30.9
Will Fulham win on 2025-10-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+254%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+254%+$119.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT+27.7%+$19.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump x Xi talk before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+27.4%+$51.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$13.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$570
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Oct 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.