Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e65207ea76ce0b3b54a141e1b22d9eae82157b3366143cdc85c0489abb575c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $236,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 2c | 14,705$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.74 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 32c | 8,315$2,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,664.21 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 21c | 8,236$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.27 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 7c | 8,012$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.92 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 2c | 6,540$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 2c | 6,510$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.72 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,025$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 4,752$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.76 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 3c | 4,215$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.85 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.29 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 60c | 3,255$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.04 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 3,015$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.2 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 64c | 2,716$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.64 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 72c | 2,438$1,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.28 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 14c | 2,300$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…46e5backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e11…6a5abacked Yes | 35c | 1,944$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 65c | 1,907$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.3 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d86fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,800$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 62c | 1,660$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.92 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,653$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 38c | 1,620$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.38 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…f361backed Yes | 33c | 1,426$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,297$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.79 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 6c | 1,240$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 63c | 1,210$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.06 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157c…c901backed Yes | 29c | 1,159$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 13c | 1,117$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,099$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4485…6d42backed Yes | 32c | 1,064$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 29c | 1,043$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.21 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…b1d4backed Yes | 49c | 1,016$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…829ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked No | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e0…bd10backed Yes | 16c | 887.04$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 30c | 836.77$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.24 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 77c | 775.77$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.45 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 78c | 766.49$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.36 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…1c2bbacked Yes | 3c | 721.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 65c | 699.99$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 33c | 681.07$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.2 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 8c | 663.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 38c | 645$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 616.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 60c | 607.78$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 66c | 599.99$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 562.64$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.49 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…283bbacked No | 61c | 557.69$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.69 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -7.3wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 36c | 550.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 7c | 539.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ba…b3f9backed No | 74c | 522$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.72 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…038ebacked No | 67c | 516.64$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.49 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 31c | 504.5$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…2393backed No | 65c | 497.59$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.18 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 472.17$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.21 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…b576backed Yes | 30c | 466$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.15 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…72e3backed Yes | 39c | 449.89$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 7c | 440$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b7…f3f4backed Yes | 41c | 436.49$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 433.87$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.62 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfe…0c17backed Yes | 3c | 426.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 59c | 400$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…3152backed Yes | 13c | 381.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 37c | 364.82$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.33 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8a…6c7cbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…606cbacked No | 57c | 351.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed No | 64c | 314.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 36c | 311.38$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb2…64f7backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 60c | 298.83$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b3…ac3dbacked Yes | 7c | 277.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…3295backed Yes | 37c | 272.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 21c | 266.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 57c | 251.91$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.32 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…e502backed Yes | 4c | 251.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 73c | 249.99$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 56c | 241.79$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.06 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed No | 62c | 241.6$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 14c | 230$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 71c | 226.46$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…8422backed Yes | 32c | 224.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…1d60backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed No | 65c | 219.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 217.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…1db6backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2047…f9fbbacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes | 20c | 183.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7978…27e0backed Yes | 7c | 178.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…b1c8backed Yes | 34c | 176.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 20c | 168$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed Yes | 34c | 159.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 64c | 154.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 48 | 83.3%40 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdf…d7a2backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 71c | 140.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 56c | 137.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0d…4b95backed Yes | 35c | 134.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.