TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc0e9…3295

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
42
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Weather, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 51 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$97.06
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$44.93
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$190
US x Iran ceasefire before August? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+38.7%+$38.73
Khamenei seen in public before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+147.8%+$61.63
Israel strike on Iran on June 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$100.38
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$113.76
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Iran strike on Qatar today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.75
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+130.3%+$52.12
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
All 15 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+128.9%+$211.97
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$155.62
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+194.3%+$80.76
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+80.6%+$208.78
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$522Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+57.6%+$300.62
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.14
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-76.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.