Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c042f05b95f9753ba8ce44d86e14582ba00a2ab4abd29421ce55f20a9f55ef2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 75c | 4,895$3,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.69 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 10c | 2,300$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.96 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 12c | 1,754$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 7c | 1,643$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 17c | 1,356$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.75 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed No | 72c | 929.09$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.69 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 12c | 700$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked No | 53c | 459.89$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.51 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 455.8$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 74c | 450.34$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.64 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed Yes | 29c | 450$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.5 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 26c | 419.63$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.26 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 27c | 405.9$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.37 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 355.11$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d08…9eb8backed No | 6c | 350.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 75c | 334.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.22 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 51c | 325.18$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.27 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 63c | 315.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.39 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 53c | 311.42$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.41 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…3295backed No | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 298.1$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.84 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 30c | 282.67$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.05 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 30c | 280.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 44c | 279.75$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8a…6a3cbacked Yes | 45c | 263.76$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 34c | 253.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 238$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 209.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.25 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed Yes | 78c | 200.64$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 47c | 200.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +269.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 195.84$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.44 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 33c | 192.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 188.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 12c | 180.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…00ccbacked Yes | 65c | 176.52$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 49c | 174.45$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 23c | 172.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 68c | 168.6$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 39c | 165.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +226.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked Yes | 64c | 156.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5234…9422backed No | 8c | 154.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…dbf8backed Yes | 37c | 142.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 15c | 140.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 71c | 139.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcea0…f535backed No | 22c | 126$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50de…570abacked No | 22c | 124$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 10c | 122.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 7cpaid | +350%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…82ebbacked Yes | 24c | 122.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 120.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 64c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 74c | 119.97$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…c19ebacked No | 22c | 119$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…c408backed No | 22c | 117$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…1833backed No | 22c | 115$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 33c | 112.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b14…b86fbacked No | 21c | 112$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…0be2backed No | 19c | 106$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e5…a300backed No | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 104$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 75c | 103$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…7db6backed No | 22c | 101$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984a…2726backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +192.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 22c | 97.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f36…8b52backed No | 24c | 95.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 86.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…2aadbacked Yes | 57c | 84.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97b…ed3bbacked No | 39c | 80.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 71c | 74.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…4f69backed Yes | 34c | 74.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +196.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6aa…4949backed Yes | 15c | 73.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +235.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 70.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 35c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 61.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 33c | 58.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 56c | 57.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d06…113ebacked Yes | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 54.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…3348backed Yes | 32c | 52.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…9121backed Yes | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed No | 30c | 50.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…74dcbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 55c | 47.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…e35cbacked Yes | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…04f3backed Yes | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4190…ad59backed Yes | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 53c | 43.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed No | 34c | 43.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…6c99backed Yes | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0c…519abacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed No | 68c | 39.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2472…5f3bbacked Yes | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49bf…96d2backed Yes | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…aa20backed Yes | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.