Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f02d6bf34c439a4f06b55e1eb27639709986c5452defe31ede643ce654a05e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,989 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 48c | 12,464$5,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,537.64 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 50c | 4,680$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.99 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…7f65backed Yes | 55c | 2,956$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…a995backed Yes | 56c | 2,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 15c | 1,466$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.9 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 53c | 1,124$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,090$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 8c | 1,044$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked Yes | 12c | 999.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 71c | 933.96$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.02 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 48c | 849.93$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.96 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 680.47$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.57 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 15c | 619.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…63b2backed Yes | 53c | 569.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 53c | 562.72$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b1…9643backed Yes | 52c | 530.6$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd910…187abacked Yes | 43c | 497.68$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed No | 46c | 471.04$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.07 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4454…f6bfbacked Yes | 50c | 463.05$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 45c | 440.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.72 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…3d00backed Yes | 52c | 419.98$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 53c | 400.72$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked No | 55c | 392.65$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked No | 49c | 378$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 51c | 378$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed No | 54c | 367.48$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.74 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 55c | 364.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 50c | 350.5$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 50c | 335.19$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.65 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 47c | 328.13$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed Yes | 52c | 306.3$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.91 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa363…4812backed No | 50c | 301.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 15c | 269.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 239.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 49c | 225.13$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.15 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 50c | 222$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed Yes | 18c | 218.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf307…2aa8backed Yes | 52c | 202.63$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca0…9fa7backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +185%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 54c | 192.3$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 53c | 188.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked Yes | 53c | 187.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 183$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…0fa7backed No | 48c | 165.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed Yes | 52c | 152.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984a…2726backed No | 49c | 149.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +192.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed Yes | 54c | 139.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8395…d069backed Yes | 54c | 130.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 48c | 127.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…70d9backed No | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed Yes | 52c | 123.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 25c | 121.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…b846backed Yes | 50c | 121.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0d…c021backed Yes | 51c | 120.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…9544backed No | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 48c | 105.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…74dcbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da5…5ed2backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5b…2979backed Yes | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 52c | 95.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 48c | 87.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a7…68c3backed Yes | 52c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 54c | 80.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 51c | 78.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d18…eae7backed Yes | 55c | 66.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed No | 47c | 66.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 63.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 61.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…52a2backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da0…72fabacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f6…146abacked Yes | 52c | 57.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…fb8cbacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…98e7backed Yes | 53c | 56.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…8c66backed Yes | 54c | 55.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed No | 48c | 55.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…b759backed No | 46c | 54.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b982backed No | 47c | 53.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…e9a7backed No | 44c | 52.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked Yes | 49c | 52.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1b39backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…012abacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…7bacbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…b9c7backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d0…7a89backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.