Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcba7b2db2b1464ff12bd82cb3a6537c9d54e173949b94b8b43b470c11e267765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3b4…8bf7backed No | 80c | 3,026$2,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19a9…4caabacked Yes | 3c | 2,467$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 68c | 2,261$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.52 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,064$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.59 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 2,011$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 8c | 1,793$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 71c | 1,468$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.87 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked No | 69c | 1,361$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…2cc1backed Yes | 3c | 1,314$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 59c | 1,298$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.86 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0d…c021backed Yes | 57c | 1,108$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 57c | 1,079$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.67 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 44c | 1,025$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.63 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 54c | 1,012$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.95 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked Yes | 31c | 934$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04f…15babacked Yes | 32c | 885$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 32c | 826$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 18c | 729.87$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 32c | 728$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked Yes | 51c | 654$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed No | 49c | 653$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.03 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 63c | 632.67$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 6c | 616.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…dbf8backed Yes | 51c | 594.89$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 8c | 542.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 34c | 504.34$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…13a5backed Yes | 4c | 473.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 55c | 450.06$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.4 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed Yes | 31c | 427$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 55c | 412.3$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.04 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…0695backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 384.27$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.83 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 32c | 379.02$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.29 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 325.77$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed No | 74c | 324.83$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 19c | 306.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed Yes | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +185%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 298.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 7cpaid | +350%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 69c | 297.36$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.22 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…3222backed No | 39c | 256.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.54 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 45c | 231.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.41 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 222.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2d08…9eb8backed No | 65c | 219.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 39c | 196.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 30c | 192.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…3c00backed No | 75c | 187.04$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 187$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 33c | 179.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…d9fcbacked No | 68c | 178$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 34c | 160.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 54c | 158.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 157.41$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 29c | 152.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 44c | 149.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 147.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 57c | 146.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 21c | 122.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576a…8357backed No | 75c | 118.4$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed No | 51c | 115.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d18…eae7backed No | 60c | 115.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 109.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 56c | 106.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed Yes | 54c | 104.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 56c | 104$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked Yes | 19c | 103.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 61c | 102.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 38c | 101.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1da5…5ed2backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…d988backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc836…9d3bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…70d9backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 37c | 91.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…129abacked Yes | 59c | 87.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 50c | 84.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked Yes | 20c | 78.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 32c | 76.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 58c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 28c | 72.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked Yes | 53c | 71.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…120dbacked Yes | 67c | 68.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 40c | 66.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 26c | 59.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…2aadbacked Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…fda6backed No | 34c | 54.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 57c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…2e2fbacked No | 49c | 50.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.