TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xabbe…8f37

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
273
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 52 out of 100; worst AI at 32.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT8457.1%48 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 84 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$361
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,120
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$630Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+76.8%+$484.06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+66.3%+$132.55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$293.65
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+146.8%+$293.57
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$81.82
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+59.8%+$173.5
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$447Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+41.5%+$185.71
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,465Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$904.08
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,461Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+39.5%+$577.76
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$440Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+39.2%+$172.58
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$920Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$535.84
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+70%+$245.06
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,480Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$1,172.42
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+34.9%+$181.63
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+37%+$37.01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,230Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+66.3%+$815.79
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$194.04
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$450
Showing 25 of 84 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT5743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+94.9%+$189.75
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+68%+$40.8
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$8.81
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+37.8%+$79.3
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+139.8%+$139.84
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+125.4%+$100.36
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$145
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$575Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+61.4%+$353.33
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$430Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+43.4%+$186.6
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.69
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.35
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$290.67
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.36
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$56.39
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$213.16
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,014Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$276.09
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT3256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+53.3%+$213.18
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+147.4%+$191.64
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+99.7%+$179.5
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+67.9%+$373.37
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$151.08
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$167.39
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+35.2%+$52.86
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+38.8%+$116.3
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+28%+$55.97
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$482Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+28.1%+$135.45
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$234.82
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$3,332Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,332.2
USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$843Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$842.6
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$827Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$827.43
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.25
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$235.92
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.36
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,159Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+47.5%+$1,024.76
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$490
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+40.3%+$564.24
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,894Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+28.1%+$531.84
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT2524%6 W · 19 L-8.3wins-0.33per pick57cpaid-67%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
AI — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,269Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$888.7
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$604Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$604
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.09
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$510
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$99.3
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,859Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+50.9%+$1,455.04
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,380
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$283.89
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$217
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.56
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,506Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+29.1%+$1,019.39
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$267.17
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$746Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$745.93
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+47.4%+$52.16
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$257
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+40.9%+$81.84
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$320
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$162.71
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$207.39
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Sam Altman say "API" or "AGI" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$610Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$609.6
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$300.88
All 25 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT2360.9%14 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+81%+$52.66
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$710Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+34.9%+$247.81
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$850Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+52.1%+$442.77
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+40.3%+$169.68
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$331Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+39.2%+$129.8
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$164.98
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$682Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$681.51
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$907Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+45.6%+$413.37
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$431.99
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,165Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,164.53
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,692Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$1,202.69
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$764Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$763.86
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+37.5%+$374.61
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+115.4%+$57.7
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,023Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+49.8%+$508.77
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$3,454Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+62.9%+$2,172.95
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,590Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$2,590.13
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,432Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+46.6%+$667.22
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$411Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+35.7%+$146.67
All 23 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT2142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+59.4%+$118.88
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$663Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+62.9%+$417.18
Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+67%+$171.91
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$208
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$660Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$213.48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,280Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+52.1%+$666.48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$623Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$623
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$860Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$860
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,270
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$490.12
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$398Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$398
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,204Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$380.11
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,722Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+35.3%+$607.95
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+122.7%+$245.49
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,454Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,454.05
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$42.86
All 21 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick68cpaid-71.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-56.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$30.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$140
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedevbacked Daniil Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.