Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x367c705becf7c27530ceaa65f3c96b2709f0e299aa98690f7e9f5386e1838745
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb477…a660backed Yes | 0c | 23,389$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee5…dfa9backed Yes | 0c | 10,770$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddd…3252backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…1cc5backed No | 70c | 6,063$4,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.71 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.99 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 38c | 2,599$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.15 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 23c | 2,264$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.92 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 35c | 2,163$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.02 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 35c | 2,123$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.86 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 56c | 2,025$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.79 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 12c | 1,750$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…e21ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,469$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.62 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 53c | 1,358$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.93 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 1,352$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.88 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 52c | 1,052$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.15 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 43c | 1,027$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.87 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 42c | 799.13$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.12 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 794.9$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.53 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 44c | 780.58$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.97 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked No | 80c | 747.48$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.54 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 44c | 714.6$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.71 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed No | 69c | 700.47$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +274.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 38c | 634.99$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.91 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked No | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 39c | 595.95$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.74 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 13c | 578.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 59c | 542.37$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.83 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 37c | 536.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes | 38c | 528.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 49c | 523.47$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.21 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 50c | 515$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.8 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 44c | 477.94$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.04 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 45c | 428.45$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.29 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 37c | 419$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.03 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes | 50c | 404.04$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.86 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 50c | 402.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 27c | 402.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 18c | 397.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 41c | 390.49$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.39 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 382.96$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.02 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 55c | 363.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed No | 55c | 355.98$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.53 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 56c | 351.58$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.3 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 43c | 350.88$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…4a7dbacked Yes | 29c | 350.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 12c | 341.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb641…34ffbacked Yes | 61c | 322.21$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…c604backed Yes | 54c | 307.92$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked No | 62c | 302$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes | 58c | 293.73$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…83d6backed No | 59c | 281.18$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.18 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 37c | 269.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 262.01$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 62c | 251.89$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.22 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 49c | 230.24$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.37 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…c3e1backed Yes | 53c | 230$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 226.61$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.19 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Yes | 34c | 224.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 195 | 27.7%54 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 34c | 223.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 35c | 200.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 19c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked No | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 280 | 34.3%96 W · 184 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…59babacked No | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked No | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 195.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…35c2backed Yes | 40c | 184.26$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…1f2abacked Yes | 55c | 177.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339d…06dabacked Yes | 17c | 176.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Yes | 57c | 174.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 48c | 173.66$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…3af0backed Yes | 35c | 171.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 36c | 167.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 13c | 158.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 53c | 151.56$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…8d4dbacked Yes | 30c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 35c | 148.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 21c | 147.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 34c | 142$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…e74cbacked Yes | 34c | 141.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 62c | 134.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 38c | 127.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 25c | 126.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 55c | 124.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…0217backed No | 63c | 120.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 111.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 53c | 111.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 22c | 108.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 15c | 104.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 17c | 104.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 22c | 103.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 65c | 103.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.