Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf745b81a1b09278c0c818192cb273fdc9794a455f895035d6eb807a5d64a127d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 23c | 5,556$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.81 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 43c | 3,770$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.67 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 58c | 3,519$2,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,044.27 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 32c | 2,991$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.45 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 2,851$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.44 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 75c | 2,666$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.41 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 20c | 2,390$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.32 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 60c | 2,304$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.42 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 37c | 1,908$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.14 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 55c | 1,830$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.91 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 28c | 1,806$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.06 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 42c | 1,676$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.54 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 65c | 1,567$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…06babacked Yes | 50c | 1,520$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +64%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 34c | 1,332$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.25 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 1,173$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.15 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 14c | 1,150$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 51c | 875.5$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.11 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 36c | 800.01$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 12c | 793.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 53c | 711.48$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.5 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 704.42$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.33 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 24c | 680.29$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.02 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 69c | 679.72$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.82 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 31c | 630.28$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.98 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 22c | 610.98$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.51 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 37c | 562.53$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.81 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 47c | 552.61$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.2 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 61c | 541.79$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.82 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 22c | 532.85$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.61 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 48c | 520.42$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.46 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes | 76c | 517.82$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.54 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…a070backed Yes | 24c | 517$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.14 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 511.65$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.96 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 13c | 499.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 51c | 499.69$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.84 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 43c | 487.46$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.58 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…83d6backed No | 61c | 482$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.91 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…9457backed Yes | 32c | 474.58$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 47c | 461.19$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.89 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 68c | 458.13$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.26 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 18c | 416.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 25c | 398.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.46 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 19c | 386.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 52c | 384.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 70c | 379.82$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.26 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 52c | 374.61$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.96 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae4…aa62backed Yes | 16c | 360$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 42c | 346.82$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.27 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 68c | 343.06$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 27c | 327.47$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.51 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 326.91$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.23 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 31c | 323.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.03 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…1cc5backed No | 27c | 320$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.83 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 15c | 311.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 55c | 310.22$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.9 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 53c | 307.82$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.68 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed No | 46c | 306.69$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +274.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 69c | 303.47$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.62 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 35c | 283.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 67c | 278.65$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.94 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 76c | 276.09$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…cf75backed Yes | 15c | 270.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 24.2%36 W · 113 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 68c | 269.54$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.04 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 268.32$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.53 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 46c | 265.81$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.3 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 43c | 265.31$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.49 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 60c | 265$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 31c | 263.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 25c | 239.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.83 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 13c | 233$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 56c | 225.28$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.16 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Yes | 36c | 216.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 195 | 27.7%54 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 68c | 213.66$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.64 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…8d4dbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 62c | 200$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes | 44c | 198.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 51c | 196.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…ff8cbacked No | 51c | 194.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…a51bbacked No | 30c | 188$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 66c | 186.55$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…35c2backed Yes | 59c | 186.47$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 183$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 55c | 182$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…e21ebacked Yes | 11c | 174.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 54c | 173.66$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 8c | 173.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 70c | 170.52$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 59c | 169.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 63c | 164.21$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 51c | 160$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 60c | 160$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 75c | 159$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 155$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 70c | 153.12$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.39 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.