Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaa183eb2df8d7bbee7a9b59237777203230dfda5d6b569b5149eb788fae80a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $362,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $250,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $362,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 7c | 17,141$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,914.07 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 0c | 15,999$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 16c | 12,974$2,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,856.78 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 12,417$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,291.77 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 15c | 12,120$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,263.47 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 6c | 11,462$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,737.64 | 186 | 16.1%30 W · 156 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 9,326$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,119.73 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 14c | 8,279$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,118.25 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 40c | 7,911$3,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,765.47 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 7c | 7,721$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,214.68 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 30c | 7,524$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,256.51 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 3c | 7,403$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,207.24 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 9c | 6,268$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,733.82 | 161 | 22.4%36 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 6,180$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,115.53 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 17c | 5,885$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.6 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,568$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,507.96 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 5,140$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,579.8 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed No | 1c | 4,950$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,919$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,882.03 | 552 | 5.6%31 W · 521 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa980…583ebacked Yes | 19c | 4,488$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,614.94 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,964.46 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed No | 6c | 3,546$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.47 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 2,877$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.87 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 10c | 2,823$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,541.5 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 2,588$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,488.07 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 17c | 2,550$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,121.61 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 3c | 2,450$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,385.32 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 3c | 2,186$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.93 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 2c | 2,047$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.76 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 2,037$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.98 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…8354backed Yes | 2c | 2,027$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,991.39 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +347%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,783$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.42 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 4c | 1,746$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.6 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,647$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625.22 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 41c | 1,617$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.8 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.5 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,488$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.93 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 1,457$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.16 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 19c | 1,339$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.91 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 6c | 1,280$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.38 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 14c | 1,207$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 9c | 1,180$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.68 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…dd45backed Yes | 5c | 1,150$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.7 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5393…966abacked Yes | 2c | 1,088$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.91 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 22c | 1,070$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.5 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…eed3backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 2c | 990$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.13 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 2c | 973.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.16 | 312 | 24.7%77 W · 235 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 962.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.1 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 894.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.79 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 23c | 876.91$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.3 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…6c75backed Yes | 1c | 800$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.82 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +429.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 737.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.36 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 3c | 652.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.85 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 649.33$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.02 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x97cd…227dbacked Yes | 2c | 620.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +233%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 3c | 616.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.34 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 9c | 569.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.01 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 4c | 520.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 270 | 24.4%66 W · 204 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 519.37$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.31 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes | 2c | 512.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.55 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…06babacked Yes | 6c | 510$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +64%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb816…9e90backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.5 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…9fb8backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…db99backed Yes | 44c | 487.49$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.02 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 15c | 444.87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.69 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…28b8backed Yes | 9c | 410$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.51 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 78c | 400$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 5c | 389.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.79 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248c…a56bbacked No | 23c | 346.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 33c | 300.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.1 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 23c | 251.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.88 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 61c | 245.08$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed Yes | 33c | 241$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.54 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +274.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.4 | 199 | 25.1%50 W · 149 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 12c | 194.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.02 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31f2…f75fbacked Yes | 15c | 190$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…a51bbacked No | 30c | 188$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes | 23c | 170.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.95 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa412…cebabacked Yes | 18c | 153.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ef…91fdbacked No | 40c | 132.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 12c | 128.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.61 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 22c | 120$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 19c | 105.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…0499backed Yes | 15c | 97.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…bf6cbacked Yes | 19c | 93.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 24c | 92.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4056…c4f1backed No | 22c | 80.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…84d0backed No | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…1293backed Yes | 74c | 57.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 55c | 56.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Yes | 22c | 52.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…4ecfbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.