Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25d2e100ecd7f64d78dd485f4720871052d6d02381431df7e7cb963b7e76c288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $314,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 16,643$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.17 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 40c | 11,975$4,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,816.17 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 78c | 10,272$8,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,032.3 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 70c | 9,760$6,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,966.43 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 21c | 7,099$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.86 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 22c | 6,913$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,423.03 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 21c | 6,275$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,948.16 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 2c | 5,899$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 46c | 5,643$2,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,593.92 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 5,302$3,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,867.09 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 8c | 5,223$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,829.79 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 36c | 4,958$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,153.04 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 0c | 4,060$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 9c | 4,027$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.03 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 77c | 3,900$2,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,987.5 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 29c | 3,745$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.18 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 4c | 3,551$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.98 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 37c | 3,176$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.58 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 0c | 3,096$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 69c | 2,990$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.03 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 13c | 2,868$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.06 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…8354backed Yes | 48c | 2,791$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.76 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +319.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…06babacked Yes | 22c | 2,780$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.31 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +64%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 2,777$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.8 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 56c | 2,741$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.39 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 9c | 2,630$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400.6 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 2,099$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.74 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 2,092$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 2,037$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.48 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 18c | 1,850$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.9 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 11c | 1,753$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.49 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…cf75backed Yes | 23c | 1,683$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.5 | 149 | 24.2%36 W · 113 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 1c | 1,637$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.86 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 54c | 1,467$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.83 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed No | 7c | 1,456$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.47 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 6c | 1,400$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 19c | 1,340$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.82 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 1,339$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.86 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 11c | 1,310$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.49 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 10c | 1,297$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 3c | 1,155$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.71 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 3c | 1,065$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.22 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 11c | 1,047$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 28c | 906.58$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.36 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae4…aa62backed No | 8c | 900$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 45c | 851.84$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.37 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 4c | 849.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 804.34$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.66 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 34c | 800$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.2 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 5c | 797.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 62c | 735.06$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.47 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 4c | 728.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.93 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 8c | 685.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.35 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 30c | 657.65$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes | 51c | 652.09$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 27c | 629.7$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.58 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 76c | 579.51$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.45 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 67c | 564.58$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.64 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 26c | 560.3$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.53 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes | 38c | 531.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 57c | 521.56$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 51c | 461.32$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.29 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 21c | 454.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 15c | 409.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 22c | 363.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 6c | 350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 10c | 347.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.96 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 4c | 345.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…db99backed Yes | 68c | 321.71$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 21c | 309.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 17c | 268.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed No | 74c | 268.1$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +274.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 25c | 262.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 257.77$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.65 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 63c | 257.22$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed No | 6c | 255$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.56 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 21c | 251.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 42c | 225$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.46 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb816…9e90backed Yes | 53c | 225$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 21c | 223.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 24c | 220.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 37c | 213$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.93 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 15c | 208.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 24c | 206.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e1…ae66backed No | 34c | 206.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked No | 67c | 201.88$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…6c75backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +429.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb06…ca56backed No | 24c | 197.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.57 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 10c | 196.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 159 | 18.9%30 W · 129 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…a51bbacked No | 30c | 188$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc4…0e3cbacked No | 9c | 181.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +156.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 17c | 175.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 24c | 174.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 27c | 170$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 43c | 170$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…dd45backed Yes | 40c | 169.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…8d4dbacked Yes | 11c | 166.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.