Wallet 0x7b18…efae
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x7b180973e6f69caf08a3d96d90c11122ae7eefae
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 627
- What they are worth now
- $303
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50
bought for $3,727
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 627, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August?backed Yes | 48.61shares | 50c | 86c | $42 |
| Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in August?backed Yes | 48.61shares | 50c | 18c | $9 |
| Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August?backed Yes | 24.87shares | 21c | 34c | $8 |
| Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?backed Yes | 24.86shares | 23c | 31c | $8 |
| Will Bonnie Crombie win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?backed Yes | 16.54shares | 8c | 44c | $7 |
| Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?backed Yes | 16.54shares | 6c | 44c | $7 |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?backed Yes | 15.81shares | 25c | 41c | $6 |
| Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of September 2026?backed Yes | 12shares | 45c | 42c | $5 |
| Market 0x6fa2…f815backed outcome 0 | 24.86shares | 46c | 20c | $5 |
| Market 0xfbe9…d868backed outcome 0 | 5shares | 22c | 95c | $5 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 — we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet sitting at exactly that number is holding more than we counted. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0x0ca5…c756backed outcome 1 | 100shares | 3c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Market 0x7cfd…a072backed outcome 0 | 76.71shares | 11c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 19?backed Yes · resolved | 76.71shares | 11c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · resolved | 50.99shares | 9c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · resolved | 50.99shares | 9c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 3 never will: TailMyPicks scored those markets and this wallet’s position on them did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away. 2 are not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 204
- Categories scored
- 18
- Categories below 50
- 9
Best Category: Bundesliga, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).
Best Category Bundesliga at 53 out of 100; worst Europa Conference League at 47.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Weatherlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Weather — the 49 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Asian Leaguelast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Asian League — the 29 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| South American Leagueslast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
South American Leagues — the 25 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mlslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Mls — the 20 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Europa Conference League — the 17 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tweets — the 9 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| World Politicslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other European Leagueslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Other European Leagues — the 8 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| La Ligalast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
La Liga — the 8 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Dota2 — the 5 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Movieslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Movies — the 5 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Musiclast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Music — the 3 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Bundesligalast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Cricketlast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Cricket — the 2 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Stockslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.