Premier League · resolved market
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x411f44bd92294adb7725ae6592da5621798ae6bb988d248b541643be4d96d67f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed Yes | 31c | 3,230$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,228.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 24c | 3,204$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,436.84 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 70c | 1,870$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.75 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 65c | 1,789$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.49 | 489 | 50.1%245 W · 244 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 37c | 1,631$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.39 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 1,100$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 79c | 718.98$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.99 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 24c | 664.77$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.24 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…a604backed No | 10c | 588.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 69c | 540.47$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.92 | 809 | 53.6%434 W · 375 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 38c | 516.4$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.77 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x834d…0c31backed No | 25c | 477$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 9c | 396.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…d0b2backed Yes | 31c | 387.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 41cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 55c | 377$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.76 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa8…4de1backed Yes | 31c | 330$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf851…ef53backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked No | 24c | 300$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 40c | 297.85$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.91 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 10c | 293.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 194 | 41.8%81 W · 113 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 20c | 249.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 31c | 204$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.76 | 155 | 47.1%73 W · 82 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 32c | 203.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 14c | 199.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 79c | 169.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.28 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 21c | 151.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 29c | 139.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…91fdbacked No | 10c | 138.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 69c | 114$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 21c | 111.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 80c | 98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes | 77c | 93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 35c | 89.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 69c | 83.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 69c | 75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 50c | 74.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 69c | 66.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 51c | 65.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 34c | 52.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 46c | 51.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…ac69backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 81.8%27 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…e086backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 45.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed No | 62c | 43.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 33c | 32.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 382 | 33.2%127 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Yes | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Stoke City FC vs. Swansea City AFC end in a draw?No won
- Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.