Tweets · resolved market
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa0f89481fb224ef5be61b4e5f4fb626262abfbd1683d0e42c2745b279b4f315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 58c | 1,513$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.37 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 45c | 1,286$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.53 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 54c | 419$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.27 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 12c | 398.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 37c | 236.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 79c | 208$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…c517backed Yes | 54c | 179.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 31c | 151.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…f942backed Yes | 47c | 149$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…6510backed Yes | 69c | 145.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 31c | 143.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 36c | 116.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 110.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 65c | 109$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 93.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 35c | 93.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 33c | 92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 86.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 84.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…078abacked Yes | 46c | 74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 39c | 72.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 29c | 70.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 63.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…e3c8backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…ea81backed No | 37c | 40.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…1e65backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…4ad4backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 37c | 37.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 64c | 34.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 34c | 31.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…a079backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a32…85babacked Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 50c | 22.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…adc9backed Yes | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?this page
- Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No won
- Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.