TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7f43…f942

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Tweets, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT3850%19 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+68.6%+$10.03
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.15
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.33
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+135.2%+$282.82
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+93.9%+$35.59
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+80.9%+$86.59
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.03
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.73
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+104.4%+$226.35
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+129%+$126.9
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+153.7%+$77.6
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+246.8%+$26.09
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.17
Will White House post 200+ posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.75
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+189.2%+$39.25
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+129.5%+$54.74
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.48
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.18
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.64
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+115%+$79.71
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.61
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.97
Will White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.17
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$8.02
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.02
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-62.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+62.8%+$19.68
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.45
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.21
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.9
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+72.3%+$8.81
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.54
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.43
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keynote?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.98
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.32
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$61.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.68
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.