Tweets · resolved market
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43667794bd3fef5591b0477c9f116ccf8eeee0924f82793951aa09cd9a35fc60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 41c | 1,120$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.89 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 59c | 1,054$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.11 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 5c | 1,005$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…f942backed Yes | 43c | 491.98$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.82 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 72c | 389.8$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.09 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 41c | 384.4$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.23 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 283.55$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.62 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 39c | 246.61$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.2 | 105 | 12.4%13 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 54c | 230$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 201.95$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.87 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked Yes | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…ce38backed Yes | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…54dfbacked Yes | 36c | 187$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked Yes | 63c | 162$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 49cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 36c | 160.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed No | 59c | 155.28$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 150.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd241…fab0backed Yes | 57c | 124.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 109.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 58c | 101$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 42c | 95.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…c4b8backed Yes | 52c | 85.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 60c | 80.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 78.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 28c | 78.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 41c | 75.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 29c | 71.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9e…6693backed Yes | 57c | 69.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked No | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 76c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 46c | 55.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 49c | 51.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 51.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 46c | 50.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 47c | 48.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 42.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…7e8ebacked Yes | 61c | 41.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 65c | 40.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd89e…9c91backed Yes | 41c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 47c | 35.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb9…0754backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 47c | 29.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e5…dc0dbacked Yes | 61c | 20.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58cf…8a72backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -6.4wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…30f2backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 19.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…e007backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?this page
- Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.