Tweets · resolved market
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46301ada0fcdf1a8d89dede25b4b5b8681ab9bb2f6dd0167a64f90e10bda9595
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 39c | 1,137$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.63 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 69c | 782.5$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.85 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 34c | 665.87$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.04 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 30c | 501.78$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.66 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 50c | 244.11$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 105 | 12.4%13 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 233.43$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 39c | 230$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 201.95$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 164.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…f942backed Yes | 34c | 152.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 49c | 126.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 125.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 60c | 112.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 112.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 101.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 107 | 27.1%29 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 58c | 95.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 29c | 84.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…d6cbbacked Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 78.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 78.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked Yes | 18c | 68.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 54c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 45.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 65c | 30.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce8d…28dbbacked Yes | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 73c | 26.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 68c | 25.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 24.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 66c | 23.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?this page
- Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.