Tweets · resolved market
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a3e96c4ef30c1c2c5f6f5ccdc24106a4c1d01e0a6fbea6460763fb5b2f1a7b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 31c | 857.95$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.31 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 7c | 850$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 73c | 418.96$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 30c | 327.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 279.06$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…f942backed No | 44c | 225.26$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 222.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 57c | 212$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.16 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 61c | 192.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 192$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked Yes | 34c | 185$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 34c | 172$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 71c | 145.7$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…64f8backed Yes | 11c | 133.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfea…c839backed No | 78c | 128.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 112$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 90.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Yes | 57c | 87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 73.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 30c | 73.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 44c | 71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 57c | 69.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…bee7backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 59.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 36c | 56.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 36c | 52.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 49c | 50.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…bf7fbacked Yes | 39c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 25c | 48.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 45.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 61c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 45c | 42.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 41.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 37.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Yes | 46c | 31.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 44c | 23.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa8…0c06backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…eec3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 56c | 18.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…5a20backed No | 76c | 17.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?this page
- Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.