Tweets · resolved market
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2c65c1bd3d155a41141c7c39658e91b7d739bae2d28ac5fa117894c9db6eddd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 49c | 1,352$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.51 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 57c | 1,134$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.54 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 6c | 1,094$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 12c | 938.91$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 53c | 860.83$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.29 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…f942backed Yes | 49c | 443.23$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.35 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 23c | 426$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 69c | 425.42$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.01 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 23c | 285.49$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 63c | 281.33$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.16 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 14c | 255.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 247.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…c4b8backed Yes | 24c | 228.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.67 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 206.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 68c | 206.26$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 195.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 39c | 192.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 44c | 192.07$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked Yes | 48c | 184.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…5c9dbacked Yes | 76c | 181.95$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 49c | 181.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Yes | 63c | 149.89$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 42c | 138.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 54c | 102.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 96.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…64f8backed No | 13c | 94.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9e…6693backed Yes | 49c | 87.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 77.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 74.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 38c | 73.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 71.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 56c | 70.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed Yes | 56c | 70.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 37c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 60.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 78c | 55.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…0499backed Yes | 63c | 52.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 52c | 51.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…f20fbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed No | 43c | 48.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 60c | 42.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 74c | 40.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5736…aed1backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…25a7backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 54c | 39.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…7e8ebacked Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 47c | 31.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5a…c495backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 55c | 25.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 62c | 24.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…f258backed Yes | 55c | 21.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 20.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42bc…63e3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…cd7dbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…4904backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2963backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?this page
- Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.