TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x29ed…a8da

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
42
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: IPO, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category IPO at 52 out of 100; worst Commodities at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weatherlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT1957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+54%+$7
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.8
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7.6
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$9
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.4
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.89
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on August 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.6
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
All 19 picks, newest first.
Commoditieslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of August 17 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.17
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on August 18?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on August 14?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on August 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of August 10 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,250 Week of August 10 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.4
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 Week of August 3 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.83
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPOlast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politicslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweetslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earningslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
AIlast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Western Europe region win The International 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$10.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.