TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$302,859
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$304,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,859 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 379 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes39c39,418$15,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,028.291127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c98…f4f4backed No75c16,796$12,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,515.4720%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked Yes25c16,389$4,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,231.22759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+33.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes49c15,703$7,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,061.956030%18 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes58c14,468$8,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,008.481070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+101%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c22…e4dbbacked No45c12,843$5,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,830.71233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+231%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf17c…0c29backed No52c8,724$4,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,550.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No2c6,220$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9535.7%3 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked Yes69c6,129$4,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.362748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No6c6,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No2c5,002$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.43933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-50.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd81…c215backed No65c4,703$3,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,071.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9765…436bbacked No71c4,685$3,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,306250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe22d…635dbacked No79c4,386$3,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,462.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick69cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No9c4,000$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.871353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a8b…375cbacked No55c3,967$2,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,175.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x314c…69ddbacked No39c3,886$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.85633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6009…32acbacked Yes71c3,586$2,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa573…9479backed No64c3,340$2,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,13710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No45c3,115$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.736126.2%16 W · 45 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf01a…f231backed Yes35c3,005$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,958.431872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+50.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes74c3,000$2,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.492254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb13…2de9backed Yes24c2,929$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,228.42666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+66.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43b1…4e26backed Yes20c2,840$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,258.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+388.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes33c2,838$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,897.8914355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe55c…40f6backed No75c2,549$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d37…f007backed Yes73c2,439$1,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2884…d0c3backed Yes24c2,354$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,781.445356.6%30 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73e0…067cbacked No74c2,300$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,69240%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes25c2,152$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.7226238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed No18c2,092$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No52c2,086$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.243831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb3…da0ebacked No29c2,066$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.191250%6 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes60c1,760$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.2511741%48 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe2bf…75b5backed Yes76c1,758$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.263100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+127.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed Yes77c1,747$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.815563.6%35 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5752…8139backed Yes71c1,693$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e1c…e801backed Yes62c1,689$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc8b…280ebacked No20c1,630$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes58c1,584$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.44650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed No36c1,546$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5558055%44 W · 36 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d5c…c44cbacked No69c1,518$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes28c1,516$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.871650%8 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+19.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfbb8…c381backed No66c1,515$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No30c1,490$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.453414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes68c1,489$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.543863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed No9c1,466$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.574942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes39c1,402$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.436639.4%26 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes33c1,377$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.992470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No42c1,315$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.115855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x256c…e7d1backed No69c1,300$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaaf…f7bfbacked No79c1,258$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick75cpaid-57.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No18c1,200$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121024.9%5 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-91.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No42c1,186$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.241827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6cba…c8babacked No25c1,182$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd3…7c75backed No66c1,111$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ce…928fbacked No44c1,037$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0026…aef7backed No66c966.51$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.89540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Yes57c953.13$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.5650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x392a…262dbacked No28c905.21$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4272…10c2backed Yes79c899.99$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed No77c899.99$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.991752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd542…f187backed Yes45c887.57$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c858.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.01631.6%1 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No43c851.97$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.7730837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x33be…adc8backed No25c845.7$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d2f…acf8backed No24c824.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb03f…c592backed No29c817.95$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.66812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56e8…a409backed No34c815$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+139.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6725…1bf9backed Yes50c802.58$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.58875%6 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+440.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbda5…ee3abacked No36c775$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No32c735.92$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.8314750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa2d…dbcbbacked No63c731.77$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.26128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.31per pick39cpaid-74%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x350e…ed02backed No59c699.99$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-50.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No35c694.88$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.287518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee94…404dbacked No80c664.46$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53030%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes32c663.02$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.011850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes32c651.53$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+47.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79bf…bcdfbacked Yes74c651.19$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes26c625$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.3935341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked Yes41c618.64$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.59862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x78bd…6f69backed No25c604.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff52…4546backed No50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed No7c599.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick24cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes39c579.93$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.756349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb94a…a623backed No41c579.1$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcbb…2711backed No69c575.96$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b60…a55bbacked No31c569.63$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.41258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes36c548.31$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.3112937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x040d…417abacked No73c544.74$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf26…39a6backed Yes19c526.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked No41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0770…184bbacked Yes35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+121.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed Yes20c500$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.287548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3ba…a792backed No62c487.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0e2…5ddabacked No74c474.32$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No72c473.15$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.1190%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes39c449.98$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.792030%6 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b08…8903backed No35c447.8$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-58.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x994b…5077backed No29c444.4$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.