TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x350e…ed02

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 57 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST3026.7%8 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-47.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+112%+$52.82
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+28.9%+$8.96
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+36.1%+$36.15
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+63.9%+$97.45
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$15.4
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$15.04
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$15.4
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+29.9%+$9.2
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$15.2
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$15.4
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10.4
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 235–249 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Elon tweet 220–234 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.4
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT+30.1%+$27.66
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.2
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$175.08
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+166.1%+$243.13
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$238.15
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.6
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+33.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cap FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$44
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,411Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+70.1%+$989
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$102
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$744Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+119.1%+$886.64
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$251.33
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+63.9%+$39
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+354.5%+$78
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$58.72
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.22
Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$160
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-50.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+34%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$159
US forces in Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$125
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.