Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbb617f23de1b673aff984a7a5b019ef6c279cdcd01f613e6c195ef3337734bc

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $591,273
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $364,785

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $591,273 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 308 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	42,939$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.41	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	30,299$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544.52	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	18,533$749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$748.53	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	1c	17,100$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.74	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	1c	15,912$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.64	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	13,304$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.3	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	12,439$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.41	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	11,992$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.49	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	10,499$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7081…3970backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	4c	8,848$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	2c	7,219$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.86	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0fe…a41abacked Yes	18c	6,003$1,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,073.41	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	4c	6,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	4c	4,668$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.86	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x723c…01ebbacked Yes	1c	3,504$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.31	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,464$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,244$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	1c	3,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	15c	3,000$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc42e…56b9backed Yes	2c	2,879$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	20c	2,522$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	1c	2,500$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee38…a5a9backed Yes	14c	2,400$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa724…06c4backed Yes	16c	2,318$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.87	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes	16c	2,306$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.9	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	77c	2,306$1,776 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$529.53	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes	19c	2,261$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.48	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	2,120$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	3c	2,078$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.91	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Yes	15c	2,052$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa73…87f0backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes	1c	1,976$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	149	14.1%21 W · 128 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe636…9d26backed Yes	1c	1,933$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0545…02a0backed Yes	13c	1,843$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.71	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	4c	1,733$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.77	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes	18c	1,679$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc76…f087backed Yes	18c	1,664$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0425…9b90backed Yes	1c	1,652$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	1,650$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.31	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	1,500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	4c	1,488$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.58	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4acb…87babacked Yes	1c	1,422$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-72.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes	16c	1,422$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.37	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	1,360$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.24	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	15c	1,333$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed Yes	15c	1,306$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe944…5c72backed No	79c	1,300$1,027 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$273	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	1,263$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.74	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	14c	1,253$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.25	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	20c	1,122$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.29	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe98…9e5abacked Yes	5c	1,112$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes	2c	1,002$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes	19c	1,001$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.19	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes	14c	1,001$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.09	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	22c	1,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	8c	1,000$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.26	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65d8…3aebbacked Yes	22c	999.99$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	985.04$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes	22c	980$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.6	58	25.9%15 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe52e…af63backed Yes	15c	950$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.5	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x111d…85f7backed Yes	17c	943.97$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd166…cdc1backed Yes	17c	903.25$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	4c	808.33$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.55	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d5b…a718backed Yes	25c	800$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.56	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0702…d5f9backed Yes	16c	800$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	27cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	23c	799.81$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.84	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x824c…6874backed Yes	22c	783.88$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.13	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	18cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x328b…a089backed Yes	13c	770$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.1	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes	23c	765$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.1	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e05…0d64backed Yes	2c	740.47$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	17cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7847…fc71backed Yes	16c	721.81$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	15c	699.99$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	3c	685.85$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.98	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	9c	654.14$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.52	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes	18c	650$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	5c	627.74$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.28	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98dc…9949backed Yes	16c	609.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a0f…2e32backed Yes	17c	601.01$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664b…28e2backed Yes	20c	550$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.5	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8134…305fbacked Yes	21c	505.18$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.04	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb961…b69ebacked Yes	24c	505.17$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.5	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-4.1wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdfa9…5797backed Yes	4c	503$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.87	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+61.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfbc…167cbacked Yes	18c	501.15$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.5	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+74.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c2…1398backed Yes	13c	500.36$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.14	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f2…1362backed Yes	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	48	10.4%5 W · 43 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2f7…55dcbacked Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes	14c	499.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	131	26.7%35 W · 96 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes	23c	499.88$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.57	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed Yes	11c	465.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	12c	456$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.46	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee04…1b0bbacked Yes	17c	449.31$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe1e…6340backed Yes	16c	443.19$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	14c	436.67$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.61	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes	6c	431$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe410…ce89backed No	75c	428$321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	7c	421.09$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.05	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	25c	405.61$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3520…f128backed Yes	25c	400$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb558…6d3cbacked Yes	11c	400$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-76%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event