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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,318,161
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$798,128

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,318,161 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes0c252,547$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.571,7997.4%133 W · 1,666 L-24.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes2c140,984$3,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,283.892825%7 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes0c62,033$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.164816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes0c36,225$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.465325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77ef…9f6abacked Yes0c27,933$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.612528%7 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick19cpaid-31.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes1c27,405$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.937898.7%69 W · 720 L-0.7wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes1c23,758$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.497966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5436…e29ebacked Yes1c19,117$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c18,892$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.681,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x111d…85f7backed Yes1c12,415$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.652227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes1c12,184$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.788711.5%10 W · 77 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes0c11,146$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.298206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes0c10,190$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.262812.3%77 W · 551 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes1c10,100$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115527.7%4 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8648…2241backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10270%0 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ce…cb62backed Yes1c9,722$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5950%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes1c8,485$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.843267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d4a…a1dcbacked Yes0c8,163$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-61.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d26…a28bbacked Yes0c6,813$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes0c6,417$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.651,0838.2%89 W · 994 L+28.5wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-29.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes1c5,968$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.896814.7%10 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6075…7392backed Yes2c5,225$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb83e…1ec7backed Yes1c5,171$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb427…9e58backed Yes1c5,040$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d87…db7abacked Yes1c4,758$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.66425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes1c4,675$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.02806.3%5 W · 75 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes2c4,197$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.982097.7%16 W · 193 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40858.2%7 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed Yes2c4,000$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7413517%23 W · 112 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3418…21b5backed Yes0c3,937$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes9c3,858$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.169515.7%109 W · 586 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0d…dbb9backed Yes0c3,617$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.92317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes1c3,600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.65045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes1c3,421$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7710811.1%12 W · 96 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+70.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213876.5%25 W · 362 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3be…a12ebacked Yes1c3,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes1c2,861$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.715198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes1c2,770$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2183114.9%124 W · 707 L+1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes1c2,713$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355311.3%6 W · 47 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes2c2,592$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.922074.3%9 W · 198 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c2…e932backed Yes1c2,532$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.772317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…875cbacked Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes1c2,425$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121211.8%25 W · 187 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c2,372$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.442,1813.9%85 W · 2,096 L+4.7wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5e…05e3backed Yes1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+99.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef64…175fbacked Yes0c2,191$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6b…28b6backed Yes1c2,125$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-90%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4312…a388backed Yes2c2,076$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee38…a5a9backed Yes9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeaa…6732backed Yes1c2,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1826516.6%44 W · 221 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2039…f96dbacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e05…0d64backed Yes1c1,883$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-88.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e0f…68e2backed Yes1c1,873$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a24…dcf2backed Yes1c1,718$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes3c1,655$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9573615.2%112 W · 624 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a35…77a6backed Yes1c1,635$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes1c1,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.544219.5%86 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes2c1,345$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.296714.9%10 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+95.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf448…eb75backed Yes2c1,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes3c1,332$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.975617.9%10 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b2c…7abbbacked Yes1c1,322$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+59.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38c0…90f1backed Yes2c1,211$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0425…9b90backed Yes3c1,156$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-70.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4acb…87babacked Yes3c1,016$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-72.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c92…b9c9backed Yes3c1,011$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa64…cfcfbacked Yes2c1,004$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022119.9%44 W · 177 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes3c1,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.652468.5%21 W · 225 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf492…3061backed Yes2c1,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30588.6%5 W · 53 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+67.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes11c999.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1107920.3%16 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd166…cdc1backed Yes10c966.14$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.382015%3 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe52e…af63backed Yes2c949.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.81811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-33.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x192b…709fbacked Yes1c945.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes1c913.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1430617%52 W · 254 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…90c7backed Yes2c909.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e3…e3f5backed Yes2c869.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204214.3%6 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6af7…2c4bbacked Yes3c672.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.46520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-55.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes2c620.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.215213.5%7 W · 45 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc42e…56b9backed Yes11c546.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…99adbacked Yes4c526.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010434.6%36 W · 68 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf43…b321backed Yes3c500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e02…8a06backed Yes4c472.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ea…18b3backed Yes5c466.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x423b…86c1backed Yes4c425$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes11c417.28$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451154.3%5 W · 110 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-68.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes6c406.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233810.5%4 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7847…fc71backed Yes10c398.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404311.6%5 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid+54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffef…d38bbacked Yes6c350.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes5c292.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154249.9%42 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick10cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f4…c9acbacked Yes10c177.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.650%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes8c153.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125424.1%13 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-15.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x152b…c4d7backed Yes12c124.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.753414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68b8…5401backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+86.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.