Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c1444a27b951af117b5f5200d06f59fd45b1a61f0a7313c950d38fbaf9adc74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,318,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $798,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,318,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 0c | 252,547$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.57 | 1,799 | 7.4%133 W · 1,666 L | -24.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 2c | 140,984$3,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,283.89 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 0c | 62,033$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.16 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 36,225$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.46 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ef…9f6abacked Yes | 0c | 27,933$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 1c | 27,405$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.93 | 789 | 8.7%69 W · 720 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 23,758$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5436…e29ebacked Yes | 1c | 19,117$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 18,892$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111d…85f7backed Yes | 1c | 12,415$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…9480backed Yes | 1c | 12,184$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,146$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 0c | 10,190$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 628 | 12.3%77 W · 551 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…9249backed Yes | 1c | 10,100$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…2241backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…cb62backed Yes | 1c | 9,722$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 1c | 8,485$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4a…a1dcbacked Yes | 0c | 8,163$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d26…a28bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,813$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 6,417$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1,083 | 8.2%89 W · 994 L | +28.5wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,968$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6075…7392backed Yes | 2c | 5,225$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…1ec7backed Yes | 1c | 5,171$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…9e58backed Yes | 1c | 5,040$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…db7abacked Yes | 1c | 4,758$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 1c | 4,675$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 2c | 4,197$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…21b5backed Yes | 0c | 3,937$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 9c | 3,858$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.1 | 695 | 15.7%109 W · 586 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…dbb9backed Yes | 0c | 3,617$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 1c | 3,600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…2c20backed Yes | 1c | 3,421$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 108 | 11.1%12 W · 96 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…a12ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 1c | 2,861$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 1c | 2,770$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 831 | 14.9%124 W · 707 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 1c | 2,713$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 2c | 2,592$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c2…e932backed Yes | 1c | 2,532$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…875cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes | 1c | 2,425$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 212 | 11.8%25 W · 187 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,372$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 2,181 | 3.9%85 W · 2,096 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…05e3backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef64…175fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,191$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…28b6backed Yes | 1c | 2,125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -90%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4312…a388backed Yes | 2c | 2,076$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…a5a9backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaa…6732backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…f96dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e05…0d64backed Yes | 1c | 1,883$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0f…68e2backed Yes | 1c | 1,873$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…dcf2backed Yes | 1c | 1,718$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 3c | 1,655$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 736 | 15.2%112 W · 624 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…77a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,635$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 442 | 19.5%86 W · 356 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,345$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 67 | 14.9%10 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf448…eb75backed Yes | 2c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 3c | 1,332$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…7abbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,322$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c0…90f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,211$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0425…9b90backed Yes | 3c | 1,156$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…87babacked Yes | 3c | 1,016$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c92…b9c9backed Yes | 3c | 1,011$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…cfcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,004$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…9917backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 79 | 20.3%16 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…cdc1backed Yes | 10c | 966.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…af63backed Yes | 2c | 949.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192b…709fbacked Yes | 1c | 945.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 1c | 913.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 306 | 17%52 W · 254 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…90c7backed Yes | 2c | 909.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e3…e3f5backed Yes | 2c | 869.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…2c4bbacked Yes | 3c | 672.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes | 2c | 620.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 11c | 546.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…99adbacked Yes | 4c | 526.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…b321backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…8a06backed Yes | 4c | 472.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ea…18b3backed Yes | 5c | 466.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x423b…86c1backed Yes | 4c | 425$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9994…03ddbacked Yes | 11c | 417.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 115 | 4.3%5 W · 110 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes | 6c | 406.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7847…fc71backed Yes | 10c | 398.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d38bbacked Yes | 6c | 350.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 5c | 292.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 424 | 9.9%42 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f4…c9acbacked Yes | 10c | 177.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes | 8c | 153.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152b…c4d7backed Yes | 12c | 124.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68b8…5401backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.