TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5c6b…28b6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst South American Leagues at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+38.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+46.1%+$92.19
Military action against Iran ends by April 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+206.1%+$1,092.54
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,080Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+47.7%+$1,470.34
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,700Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$1,157.48
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$354.55
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+47.7%+$23.83
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15.4
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+156.4%+$1,564.1
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+68.1%+$16.2
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$419Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+270.4%+$1,132.85
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$500
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+87.8%+$58.45
All 17 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.09
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.58
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.45
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.23
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-03-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+525%+$210
Mirassol FC vs. Coritiba FBC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
EC Vitória vs. CA Mineiro: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Santos FC win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-02-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$13.8
Will Santos FC win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+112.8%+$33.83
All 14 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-90%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+29.9%+$11.5
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$92
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$13
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Houston vs. UCFbacked Houston · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+92.3%+$18.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown end between February 24-27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$67.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake officially release Iceman by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$78.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.