Middle East · resolved market
Military action against Iran ends by April 29, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaaec23e8c487c7796e1b347b7d1156a70d748d63b566fe790741528e886bd48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $311,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $270,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadea…50f7backed No | 0c | 55,500$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x799d…cbffbacked No | 0c | 34,774$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 22,374$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.85 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…c3a4backed No | 1c | 12,410$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.68 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 11,106$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.26 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…ecf8backed No | 3c | 10,377$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…161ebacked No | 2c | 7,074$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe661…b679backed No | 2c | 7,013$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb341…fd07backed No | 2c | 6,889$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…a676backed No | 1c | 5,448$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…9d0abacked No | 6c | 5,021$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.01 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…bf24backed No | 2c | 4,450$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b96…63cabacked No | 2c | 4,184$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…5516backed No | 0c | 4,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -70%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa5…0cd3backed No | 3c | 3,823$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4282…ea9dbacked No | 0c | 3,653$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed No | 1c | 3,454$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d73…f7b8backed No | 0c | 3,021$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…e1ebbacked No | 1c | 3,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 1c | 3,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…f8c7backed No | 1c | 2,760$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 2,700$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce2…2d0ebacked No | 2c | 2,601$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a2…e7bfbacked No | 1c | 2,233$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…c52cbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e4f3backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 1c | 1,601$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 1c | 1,538$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +79%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…2a69backed No | 1c | 1,460$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2a…ab9fbacked No | 1c | 1,423$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 1c | 1,360$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8588…7a3abacked No | 2c | 1,294$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 1c | 1,151$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…c003backed No | 2c | 1,132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 2c | 1,117$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…d084backed No | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6b…28b6backed No | 1c | 832.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…22cabacked No | 2c | 794.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 76c | 656$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.44 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 24c | 656$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.44 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2867…9815backed No | 2c | 560.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…7736backed No | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…bcc2backed No | 3c | 425$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9725…46d0backed No | 32c | 71.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 69c | 40.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfa…3c08backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Military action against Iran ends by April 29, 2026?this page
- Military action against Iran ends by April 1, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 10, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 13, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 19, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 2, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 21, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 22, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 23, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 24, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 25, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 27, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 3, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 6, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 7, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 8, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.