Middle East · resolved market
Military action against Iran ends by April 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0d2953d9aaba239786fdb4bc6ceaf9e0e6e9c843a6cbfbfb478fa83bcab74b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd650…c3a4backed No | 2c | 13,604$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.59 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…5516backed No | 0c | 12,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -70%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed No | 0c | 9,049$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb341…fd07backed No | 2c | 4,091$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 0c | 4,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…e1ebbacked No | 1c | 3,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…d084backed No | 2c | 2,995$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8f…b9b0backed No | 1c | 2,276$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,714$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,616$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,152$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 2c | 1,122$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 1c | 830.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x061d…7706backed No | 3c | 730.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2867…9815backed No | 2c | 559.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 3c | 455.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 24c | 270.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.83 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…43fbbacked No | 59c | 192.23$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…bf96backed No | 59c | 191.37$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…0288backed No | 59c | 190.92$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a65…88e5backed No | 59c | 190.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…2923backed No | 59c | 187.89$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa285…87a5backed No | 59c | 185.61$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc526…c973backed No | 59c | 185.61$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…866fbacked No | 59c | 179.81$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…2f5dbacked No | 59c | 179.42$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7a…f3d6backed No | 59c | 178.83$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa731…600cbacked No | 59c | 178.52$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…7007backed No | 59c | 177.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fb…6a96backed No | 59c | 177.6$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…e0fcbacked No | 59c | 171.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88b…4bc6backed No | 59c | 171.63$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Military action against Iran ends by April 25, 2026?this page
- Military action against Iran ends by April 1, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 10, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 13, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 19, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 2, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 21, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 22, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 23, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 24, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 27, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 29, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 3, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 6, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 7, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 8, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.